NBA games

PHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
103–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI24293020103
ORL2826251291

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ORL
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 38 29 1 1
Joel Embiid S 31 22 9 3
Paul George S 33 18 9 3
Dominick Barlow S 24 11 9 0
Andre Drummond 17 7 6 0
Quentin Grimes 29 6 1 3
VJ Edgecombe S 40 6 9 7
Jared McCain 5 2 1 1
Jabari Walker 9 2 1 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. 15 0 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 38 23 5 5
Anthony Black S 37 21 3 4
Paolo Banchero S 37 14 11 7
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 13 8 2
Jase Richardson 19 9 3 0
Noah Penda S 30 5 7 1
Jonathan Isaac 7 4 1 1
Goga Bitadze 12 2 3 0
Jamal Cain 5 0 1 1
Jett Howard 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
16%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
4 Anthony Black ORL
10%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
7 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
9 Paul George PHI
7%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
14%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 28.2 8.6 3.9
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.5 4.6 6.8
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.5 9.1 5.6
4 Anthony Black ORL 22.4 4.7 5.6
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 21.1 4.9 4.9
6 Desmond Bane ORL 20.3 5.0 4.7
7 Paul George PHI 17.6 5.4 3.9
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.6 5.1 1.8
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.1 7.6 2.2
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 12.1 3.4 3.3
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.4 3.2 1.4
12 Trendon Watford PHI 9.1 4.4 3.3
13 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.9 4.2 1.3
14 Jase Richardson ORL 8.3 2.2 1.8
15 Tyus Jones ORL 6.9 2.5 3.4
16 Andre Drummond PHI 6.8 8.0 1.1
17 Jared McCain PHI 6.8 3.2 1.7
18 Noah Penda ORL 6.1 4.5 1.2
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.6 5.2 1.0
20 Adem Bona PHI 5.4 4.3 0.8
21 Jett Howard ORL 4.6 2.1 1.1
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.0 3.0 0.6
23 Jamal Cain ORL 3.7 1.3 0.6
24 Eric Gordon PHI 3.6 0.5 0.4
25 Jabari Walker PHI 3.4 3.4 0.5
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.7 0.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.