NBA games

TOR @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
117–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR30302631117
BOS37312928125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BOS
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 28 19 4 7
Ja'Kobe Walter S 31 19 6 1
Immanuel Quickley S 35 17 2 13
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 25 15 8 1
Jamal Shead 24 13 1 8
Gradey Dick 24 9 1 1
Collin Murray-Boyles S 21 7 2 1
Alijah Martin 15 7 1 3
Jonathan Mogbo 19 6 3 3
A.J. Lawson 6 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 30 27 5 8
Jaylen Brown S 37 25 8 7
Sam Hauser S 32 19 5 2
Derrick White S 38 18 3 5
Anfernee Simons 26 15 2 5
Neemias Queta S 27 10 6 0
Luka Garza 21 6 7 1
Hugo Gonzalez 19 5 4 0
Jordan Walsh 12 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Payton Pritchard BOS
15%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
14%
3 Neemias Queta BOS
14%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
5 Derrick White BOS
12%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
7 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
10%
8 Sam Hauser BOS
9%
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
0%
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
31%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.6 7.4 6.2
2 RJ Barrett TOR 21.0 5.0 3.3
3 Derrick White BOS 20.0 5.3 5.7
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.5 4.8 5.8
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.4 3.9 5.9
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 13.9 3.2 2.3
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.6 5.9 2.3
8 Neemias Queta BOS 9.9 8.4 1.2
9 Luka Garza BOS 8.6 4.9 1.3
10 Sam Hauser BOS 8.5 3.4 1.2
11 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 8.4 7.5 2.1
12 Jamal Shead TOR 8.0 1.9 4.5
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.8 2.5 1.2
14 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.3 5.3 1.1
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.8 2.5 0.9
16 Gradey Dick TOR 5.5 2.1 0.9
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.2 3.9 0.9
18 Josh Minott BOS 3.9 1.9 0.7
19 Chris Boucher BOS 3.9 3.1 0.6
20 Jamison Battle TOR 3.7 1.6 0.7
21 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.4 1.7 0.7
22 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.3 1.1 0.3
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.7 1.2 0.7
24 Alijah Martin TOR 2.7 1.0 0.4
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.6 0.3
26 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.