NBA games

DAL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
114–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL29263425114
UTAH34243028116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home UTAH
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 38 26 10 8
Klay Thompson 29 23 3 5
Anthony Davis S 35 21 11 4
Naji Marshall S 37 17 2 4
Max Christie S 32 16 4 4
Ryan Nembhard 22 7 2 4
Caleb Martin 14 2 5 0
Brandon Williams 9 2 3 1
Daniel Gafford S 25 0 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 40 33 7 4
Keyonte George S 37 19 3 7
Brice Sensabaugh S 30 14 5 3
Walter Clayton Jr. 21 12 0 3
Kevin Love S 24 10 10 2
Kyle Filipowski 18 8 4 1
Cody Williams S 22 8 3 4
Isaiah Collier 18 7 1 6
Taylor Hendricks 4 3 2 0
Kyle Anderson 26 2 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Christie · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Max Christie makes 4-foot two point shot (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
14%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
14%
3 Naji Marshall DAL
11%
4 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
5 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
7 Max Christie DAL
8%
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
8%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
10 Kevin Love UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
34%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 26.7 4.9 8.0
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 26.1 8.1 3.2
3 Anthony Davis DAL 23.5 12.6 3.2
4 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.2 7.2 6.5
5 Naji Marshall DAL 16.3 5.0 3.2
6 Brandon Williams DAL 15.5 4.3 4.0
7 Max Christie DAL 14.0 4.1 2.9
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 13.3 4.1 2.7
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 11.4 3.8 7.9
10 Klay Thompson DAL 9.5 2.9 1.5
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.1 3.0 1.8
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.5 7.4 1.0
13 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 8.3 4.5 1.7
14 Kevin Love UTAH 8.2 5.7 1.6
15 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 8.1 2.4 2.3
16 Kyle Anderson UTAH 7.9 3.2 2.5
17 Ryan Nembhard DAL 7.2 2.3 4.8
18 Cody Williams UTAH 6.4 2.6 1.0
19 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.1 2.8 1.2
20 D'Angelo Russell DAL 5.9 1.3 2.3
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.1 1.3 0.9
22 Dwight Powell DAL 3.9 3.4 0.8
23 Caleb Martin DAL 3.5 1.7 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.