NBA games

CLE @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
122–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE31362233122
MIN32314325131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIN
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 30 7 8
Sam Merrill 31 22 2 3
Evan Mobley S 38 19 4 3
Darius Garland S 37 16 1 8
De'Andre Hunter 27 14 7 4
Jarrett Allen S 30 11 10 1
Jaylon Tyson 18 4 5 1
Craig Porter Jr. S 15 4 1 2
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 8 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 35 28 11 8
Jaden McDaniels S 38 26 5 1
Anthony Edwards S 37 25 7 9
Donte DiVincenzo S 34 22 1 4
Rudy Gobert S 37 11 13 3
Naz Reid 24 9 6 3
Jaylen Clark 11 5 0 0
Mike Conley 14 3 1 2
Bones Hyland 10 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes alley oop layup (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Darius Garland CLE
9%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
11%
Layup
55%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.1 5.1 4.2
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.5 4.8 6.0
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.0 6.8 6.1
4 Darius Garland CLE 22.0 2.9 7.4
5 Evan Mobley CLE 16.9 8.5 3.6
6 Naz Reid MIN 16.2 6.3 2.4
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.5 9.1 2.9
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.1 4.2 3.3
9 Sam Merrill CLE 12.9 3.3 2.3
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.8 4.8 1.9
11 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.8 5.0 2.1
12 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.2 4.5 4.7
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.7 11.1 1.5
14 Bones Hyland MIN 7.6 2.1 3.1
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.8 4.3 3.1
16 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.6 3.4 0.7
17 Lonzo Ball CLE 5.5 3.0 3.1
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.4 2.7 0.7
19 Mike Conley MIN 5.3 2.1 2.1
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.7 2.1 0.8
21 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.4 2.5 1.2
22 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.1 1.8 1.8
23 Leonard Miller MIN 3.6 1.8 0.7
24 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.5 1.4 0.8
25 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.5 1.2 1.0
26 Joan Beringer MIN 3.0 2.2 0.6
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.7 1.0 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.