NBA games

MIA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Postponed
Tip-off

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHI
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Player MIN PTS REB AST

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
12%
3 Kel'el Ware MIA
11%
4 Norman Powell MIA
11%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
7 Tre Jones CHI
9%
8 Kevin Huerter CHI
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
36%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 23.8 4.1 4.1
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.0 5.8 3.1
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.8 8.6 4.7
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 18.3 5.0 2.4
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.5 4.8 3.1
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 14.5 10.5 3.1
7 Kel'el Ware MIA 14.3 10.3 1.3
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.7 3.5 4.1
9 Nikola Jovic MIA 11.6 3.8 4.0
10 Kevin Huerter CHI 11.3 4.8 2.6
11 Tre Jones CHI 11.0 3.3 5.7
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.2 2.3 6.6
13 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.5 3.2 1.5
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 8.6 2.4 2.5
15 Dru Smith MIA 6.7 2.2 1.8
16 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.4 2.2 1.2
17 Julian Phillips CHI 5.3 2.0 0.9
18 Patrick Williams CHI 5.2 2.4 1.1
19 Simone Fontecchio MIA 5.0 2.1 1.2
20 Jevon Carter CHI 4.8 1.5 1.1
21 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.4 2.5 0.7
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 1.9 1.1
23 Myron Gardner MIA 3.5 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.