NBA games

IND @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
114–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND33273024114
CHA30282925112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CHA
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 30 14 3
T.J. McConnell 28 23 4 8
Aaron Nesmith S 35 16 5 2
Jay Huff S 24 10 2 0
Johnny Furphy S 26 7 6 2
Ben Sheppard 27 7 4 2
Tony Bradley 15 7 3 0
Micah Potter 8 5 0 0
Quenton Jackson S 18 4 0 5
Ethan Thompson 8 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball 27 33 3 8
Miles Bridges S 36 19 6 4
Kon Knueppel S 29 18 8 3
Collin Sexton S 18 11 0 5
Moussa Diabate S 36 10 5 1
Brandon Miller S 19 6 4 3
Tidjane Salaun 13 4 2 1
Sion James 22 4 2 2
Josh Green 18 3 0 0
Liam McNeeley 11 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · Layup (2 pts) · 10:45 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes running layup (Brandon Miller assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
5 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
7 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Sion James CHA
8%
10 Johnny Furphy IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
27%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.7 5.1 3.8
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.3 6.0 3.9
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 22.1 4.6 4.2
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.8 4.3 6.8
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.2 3.3 7.8
6 Miles Bridges CHA 17.7 6.6 3.6
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.6 4.6 3.1
8 Collin Sexton CHA 14.4 2.8 3.9
9 T.J. McConnell IND 9.3 2.9 5.0
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.4 9.8 1.9
11 Jay Huff IND 8.3 3.7 1.5
12 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.5 5.1 1.2
13 Jarace Walker IND 7.4 2.4 1.5
14 Sion James CHA 7.3 3.8 2.5
15 Ben Sheppard IND 7.0 2.5 1.5
16 Johnny Furphy IND 6.9 3.9 1.1
17 Micah Potter IND 6.7 3.0 1.3
18 PJ Hall CHA 5.8 4.5 0.8
19 Josh Green CHA 5.6 1.9 1.2
20 Ethan Thompson IND 5.1 2.0 1.5
21 Tre Mann CHA 4.9 1.9 1.5
22 Liam McNeeley CHA 4.6 2.4 0.9
23 Quenton Jackson IND 4.1 1.2 1.0
24 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.6 1.4 0.8
25 Kam Jones IND 2.4 0.7 0.4
26 Tony Bradley IND 2.1 2.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.