NBA games

HOU @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
102–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU22252827102
POR25322422103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home POR
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 37 4 0
Amen Thompson S 39 24 12 6
Tari Eason S 31 15 13 3
Reed Sheppard 22 8 2 1
Steven Adams S 30 7 11 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 6 4 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 14 3 3 0
Clint Capela 12 2 3 2
Aaron Holiday 5 0 1 0
Josh Okogie 13 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 39 41 6 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 34 20 0 3
Toumani Camara S 39 14 6 3
Donovan Clingan S 31 12 7 3
Caleb Love 29 10 7 4
Robert Williams III 18 3 4 2
Yang Hansen 17 3 3 2
Rayan Rupert 18 0 3 1
Sidy Cissoko S 16 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 20-foot jumper (Amen Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
13%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
4 Jerami Grant POR
9%
5 Deni Avdija POR
9%
6 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
7 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
8 Steven Adams HOU
6%
9 Toumani Camara POR
6%
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
30%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 27.3 6.0 5.9
2 Deni Avdija POR 26.5 7.4 8.9
3 Amen Thompson HOU 22.1 7.8 5.4
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.4 4.4 3.4
5 Jerami Grant POR 20.5 4.3 3.4
6 Jrue Holiday POR 19.7 4.7 7.8
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.7 6.7 2.0
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.8 2.8 4.0
9 Caleb Love POR 13.9 3.0 2.4
10 Toumani Camara POR 13.6 4.5 2.5
11 Donovan Clingan POR 13.6 10.3 1.6
12 Tari Eason HOU 12.0 5.9 1.6
13 Kris Murray POR 8.0 3.8 1.6
14 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.5 2.5 1.9
15 Steven Adams HOU 6.4 6.6 1.5
16 Robert Williams III POR 6.0 7.5 1.2
17 Josh Okogie HOU 5.3 2.2 1.1
18 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.9 1.2 0.8
19 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.1 2.5 0.8
20 Rayan Rupert POR 4.1 1.6 0.9
21 Clint Capela HOU 3.9 3.9 0.6
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.2 1.3 0.8
23 Duop Reath POR 3.1 1.4 0.6
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.0 1.5 0.7
25 Yang Hansen POR 2.9 2.0 0.8
26 Jeff Green HOU 1.8 0.6 0.3
27 Javonte Cooke POR 1.6 0.6 0.4
28 JD Davison HOU 1.5 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.