NBA games

MIL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
113–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL31222931113
GS31333422120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home GS
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 31 34 10 5
Ryan Rollins S 35 16 7 4
Kevin Porter Jr. S 40 15 4 9
Myles Turner S 25 13 2 3
Kyle Kuzma 21 13 2 2
AJ Green S 30 11 2 2
Bobby Portis 23 6 6 0
Gary Trent Jr. 22 5 1 2
Gary Harris 14 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 31 6 7
De'Anthony Melton 25 22 3 0
Jimmy Butler III S 32 21 5 3
Draymond Green S 29 14 3 7
Quinten Post S 19 11 1 3
Moses Moody S 28 9 2 0
Al Horford 19 8 10 6
Brandin Podziemski 22 2 6 4
Gui Santos 18 2 4 1
Will Richard 13 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes dunk (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
18%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
3 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
11%
4 AJ Green MIL
9%
5 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
6 Myles Turner MIL
8%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Quinten Post GS
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
8%
10 Stephen Curry GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
14%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 26.0 9.4 4.4
2 Stephen Curry GS 25.3 4.4 5.6
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 21.9 5.1 5.3
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 20.6 6.0 8.6
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 19.2 4.8 5.5
6 Bobby Portis MIL 16.0 7.7 1.7
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.6 6.1 2.6
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.9 3.8 3.4
9 Myles Turner MIL 12.1 4.9 1.6
10 Draymond Green GS 10.6 5.2 5.3
11 Moses Moody GS 8.7 3.5 1.8
12 Quinten Post GS 8.0 3.9 1.5
13 AJ Green MIL 7.8 2.2 1.8
14 Will Richard GS 7.8 2.8 1.5
15 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 7.5 1.8 1.2
16 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.2 4.4 1.8
17 De'Anthony Melton GS 7.1 3.0 1.9
18 Pat Spencer GS 6.8 2.2 3.7
19 Al Horford GS 6.7 4.3 1.5
20 Buddy Hield GS 6.7 3.1 1.0
21 Gary Payton II GS 6.3 3.4 1.8
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.4 4.5 1.0
23 Jericho Sims MIL 4.8 3.4 0.9
24 Gui Santos GS 4.7 2.9 1.1
25 Gary Harris MIL 4.4 1.7 0.8
26 Cole Anthony MIL 2.5 1.1 1.1
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.2 0.8 0.8
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.7 0.9 0.3
29 Amir Coffey MIL 1.4 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.