NBA games

UTAH @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
125–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
UTAH2231332811125
OKC3127332315129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home OKC
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 44 29 13 1
Keyonte George S 43 25 7 11
Walter Clayton Jr. 27 15 6 4
Jusuf Nurkic S 33 15 15 4
Brice Sensabaugh S 32 13 5 1
Svi Mykhailiuk S 27 8 7 6
Isaiah Collier 18 6 1 5
Cody Williams 14 5 3 0
Taylor Hendricks 14 5 2 1
Kyle Filipowski 4 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 42 46 6 6
Chet Holmgren S 40 23 12 1
Jalen Williams S 41 17 6 8
Ajay Mitchell 33 16 2 5
Aaron Wiggins S 25 7 7 4
Luguentz Dort S 24 6 6 0
Isaiah Joe 10 5 1 0
Cason Wallace 31 4 6 0
Branden Carlson 11 3 5 1
Kenrich Williams 8 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keyonte George · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Keyonte George makes 1-foot layup (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
9%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
7 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
7%
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
29%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.5 4.7 7.4
2 Keyonte George UTAH 25.9 4.7 6.8
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.8 7.7 3.1
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.6 6.0 6.2
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.6 8.9 2.1
6 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 15.5 9.9 5.0
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 13.6 4.3 3.8
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 12.9 3.7 2.4
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 12.5 4.1 7.6
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.5 3.9 1.3
11 Ace Bailey UTAH 9.4 3.0 1.1
12 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 8.7 5.3 1.6
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.4 2.6 1.4
14 Kyle Anderson UTAH 7.7 3.2 2.3
15 Cason Wallace OKC 7.2 3.4 1.8
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.8 2.9 1.4
17 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 6.8 2.0 1.9
18 Branden Carlson OKC 5.9 3.3 1.0
19 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.8 2.8 1.0
20 Cody Williams UTAH 5.8 2.2 0.9
21 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.6 2.5 1.4
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.4 2.9 1.6
23 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.7 1.8 0.8
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.3 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.