NBA games

PHX @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
117–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX30352626117
MEM2324213098

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MEM
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 25 21 7 3
Grayson Allen 21 19 0 1
Devin Booker S 31 13 1 8
Royce O'Neale S 27 12 6 4
Mark Williams S 27 12 12 1
Jordan Goodwin 23 11 8 6
Collin Gillespie S 28 10 8 3
Rasheer Fleming 9 8 3 0
Oso Ighodaro 17 5 3 2
Nick Richards 4 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 19 4 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 17 14 3 2
Cam Spencer S 27 14 3 5
Javon Small 21 14 3 7
GG Jackson S 25 11 5 1
Jaylen Wells S 27 9 7 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 26 8 7 0
Santi Aldama 22 7 3 0
Christian Koloko 20 2 4 2
Jock Landale S 21 0 8 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 6-foot two point shot (Cam Spencer assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
16%
2 Devin Booker PHX
16%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
11%
4 Mark Williams PHX
10%
5 Cam Spencer MEM
10%
6 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
7 GG Jackson MEM
8%
8 Jock Landale MEM
7%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
26%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.8 4.2 5.8
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.1 7.5 2.5
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 20.8 4.1 2.3
4 Santi Aldama MEM 18.9 7.9 3.6
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 17.4 4.5 6.0
6 Grayson Allen PHX 15.8 2.7 3.9
7 Cam Spencer MEM 14.3 3.7 6.8
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.5 3.3 2.2
9 Jock Landale MEM 11.9 7.2 1.8
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 11.6 4.7 2.6
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.7 4.0 2.8
12 Mark Williams PHX 10.5 8.2 1.2
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 10.2 2.9 2.7
14 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.7 7.1 1.8
15 GG Jackson MEM 7.2 4.2 1.2
16 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.8 4.4 1.7
17 Javon Small MEM 4.4 1.6 2.4
18 John Konchar MEM 4.3 2.8 1.3
19 Christian Koloko MEM 3.7 3.4 0.7
20 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.7 2.0 0.6
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.4 1.4 0.7
22 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.7 2.4 0.9
23 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.9 1.2 0.3
24 Nick Richards PHX 1.8 2.9 0.3
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.8 1.6 0.3
26 Jahmai Mashack MEM 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.