NBA games

LAL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
91–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2320252391
SA26223128107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home SA
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 38 10 10
Jake LaRavia S 39 16 7 1
Jaxson Hayes 18 10 7 0
Deandre Ayton S 29 9 6 1
Gabe Vincent 18 6 2 2
Jarred Vanderbilt S 19 4 0 0
Nick Smith Jr. 10 3 0 1
Marcus Smart S 34 2 7 1
Dalton Knecht 19 2 3 0
Maxi Kleber 12 1 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 28 27 6 0
Victor Wembanyama 26 16 14 2
Stephon Castle S 29 15 5 4
De'Aaron Fox S 34 14 3 5
Julian Champagnie S 34 11 9 3
Harrison Barnes S 30 7 0 6
Luke Kornet S 21 7 6 1
Jeremy Sochan 11 6 0 1
Dylan Harper 20 2 4 2
Carter Bryant 5 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Harrison Barnes · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
14%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
13%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
12%
5 Luke Kornet SA
11%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
9%
8 Jake LaRavia LAL
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Maxi Kleber LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
36%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 30.0 5.8 8.7
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.2 9.6 3.3
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.3 4.2 7.5
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.2 4.5 6.1
5 Keldon Johnson SA 14.1 5.8 1.3
6 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.3 8.5 1.4
7 Jake LaRavia LAL 12.0 5.9 2.3
8 Julian Champagnie SA 11.7 5.9 1.6
9 Luke Kornet SA 10.5 7.6 1.9
10 Marcus Smart LAL 10.4 3.8 3.6
11 Harrison Barnes SA 10.0 3.3 1.6
12 Dylan Harper SA 8.6 3.3 3.9
13 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 7.9 5.7 1.5
14 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 7.5 1.8 1.0
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.6 4.1 0.8
16 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.7 1.0 1.0
17 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.4 2.0 1.4
18 Jeremy Sochan SA 4.0 3.0 0.8
19 David Jones Garcia SA 3.9 1.5 1.7
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.8 1.7 0.6
21 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.6 1.5 1.0
22 Lindy Waters III SA 2.7 1.0 0.4
23 Carter Bryant SA 2.7 1.6 0.7
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 1.8 1.3 0.5
25 Drew Timme LAL 1.5 1.3 0.6
26 Bronny James LAL 1.5 0.5 0.7
27 Chris Manon LAL 1.5 1.2 0.2
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.