NBA games

LAC @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
111–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC31253124111
NY27243933123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home NY
89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 36 25 3 4
James Harden S 38 23 3 9
Ivica Zubac S 31 22 11 2
John Collins S 33 18 10 0
Kris Dunn S 32 7 4 1
Brook Lopez 16 6 0 0
Jordan Miller 15 6 5 1
Nicolas Batum 18 3 1 1
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 2 1 2 0
Kobe Brown 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 33 26 3 7
OG Anunoby S 32 20 3 0
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 20 11 7
Miles McBride S 33 16 1 4
Mikal Bridges S 33 15 9 5
Jordan Clarkson 21 12 3 2
Guerschon Yabusele 13 8 2 0
Mitchell Robinson 24 4 9 1
Tyler Kolek 14 2 4 5
Pacome Dadiet 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes 24-foot running jump shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
11%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
6 OG Anunoby NY
9%
7 John Collins LAC
9%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
9 Kawhi Leonard LAC
7%
10 Kobe Sanders LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
44%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 29.3 7.4 4.6
2 Jalen Brunson NY 29.0 3.9 6.2
3 James Harden LAC 25.3 3.6 7.5
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.0 9.8 2.3
5 Mikal Bridges NY 15.1 3.9 4.6
6 John Collins LAC 14.6 5.2 1.8
7 OG Anunoby NY 14.0 5.6 2.6
8 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.0 10.5 2.3
9 Miles McBride NY 13.1 3.1 2.3
10 Kris Dunn LAC 11.2 3.5 3.5
11 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.0 1.9 1.3
12 Tyler Kolek NY 8.1 3.0 3.4
13 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.9 3.0 2.0
14 Brook Lopez LAC 7.8 4.1 1.6
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 7.2 2.8 1.3
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.8 8.7 1.3
17 Jordan Miller LAC 4.6 2.6 1.2
18 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.1 1.5 0.6
19 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.7 1.9 0.8
20 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.6 2.9 0.6
21 Kobe Brown LAC 3.5 1.9 1.1
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.9 3.0 0.8
23 Cam Christie LAC 2.3 1.4 0.6
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.1 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.