NBA games

ORL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
104–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
ORL2127311411104
BKN2320212910103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BKN
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 43 30 14 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 39 20 6 3
Tristan da Silva S 24 14 3 2
Noah Penda 31 13 11 1
Desmond Bane S 35 9 3 3
Goga Bitadze 14 6 10 1
Anthony Black S 37 5 4 6
Jett Howard 14 4 2 1
Tyus Jones 17 3 1 5
Jonathan Isaac 10 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 34 5 1
Egor Demin S 32 18 5 5
Cam Thomas 24 10 5 4
Noah Clowney S 33 10 3 4
Nic Claxton 23 7 6 0
Danny Wolf 18 6 5 2
Nolan Traore 20 6 3 2
Ziaire Williams S 27 5 2 0
Day'Ron Sharpe S 30 5 7 5
Drake Powell 19 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes driving dunk (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
12%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Anthony Black ORL
10%
6 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN
10%
7 Terance Mann BKN
7%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
10 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
26%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 26.9 8.3 4.6
2 Anthony Black ORL 23.1 4.7 5.4
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.0 8.2 5.7
4 Desmond Bane ORL 22.5 5.1 4.2
5 Cam Thomas BKN 20.4 2.4 2.6
6 Nic Claxton BKN 14.1 9.0 3.9
7 Noah Clowney BKN 14.0 4.5 2.3
8 Egor Demin BKN 13.8 3.7 3.8
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.9 7.5 2.1
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.9 2.3 1.2
11 Terance Mann BKN 8.7 3.9 4.2
12 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.7 6.5 3.5
13 Jase Richardson ORL 8.4 2.3 1.8
14 Danny Wolf BKN 8.0 3.6 2.1
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.5 3.2 1.4
16 Tyus Jones ORL 6.8 2.4 3.0
17 Drake Powell BKN 5.7 1.5 1.5
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.4 4.7 1.0
19 Nolan Traore BKN 5.4 1.7 2.2
20 Noah Penda ORL 5.3 3.8 1.2
21 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.8 1.9 1.3
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.2 3.0 0.6
23 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.1 1.2 0.6
24 Jamal Cain ORL 4.1 1.5 0.6
25 Jett Howard ORL 4.0 2.0 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.