NBA games

DEN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
114–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN31272135114
BOS35232428110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home BOS
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Peyton Watson S 37 30 6 2
Jamal Murray S 37 22 8 17
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 14 2 0
Zeke Nnaji 25 12 2 1
Aaron Gordon 23 12 6 2
Jalen Pickett 21 7 4 2
DaRon Holmes II S 13 6 2 1
Christian Braun S 30 5 5 2
Bruce Brown 19 4 1 0
Spencer Jones S 9 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 34 33 7 4
Payton Pritchard S 34 17 5 2
Derrick White S 34 17 4 4
Anfernee Simons 26 15 4 2
Luka Garza 19 11 5 0
Sam Hauser S 30 6 2 2
Neemias Queta S 24 6 20 0
Hugo Gonzalez 21 3 4 0
Baylor Scheierman 4 1 1 1
Jordan Walsh 14 1 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derrick White BOS
16%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Peyton Watson DEN
9%
4 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
7 Bruce Brown DEN
8%
8 Christian Braun DEN
7%
9 Spencer Jones DEN
6%
10 Jalen Pickett DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
13%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.8 6.8 6.2
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.8 4.7 8.1
3 Derrick White BOS 21.8 5.2 6.1
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.9 4.7 6.2
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.6 5.8 1.7
6 Peyton Watson DEN 16.0 4.2 1.8
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 15.5 3.3 1.6
8 Anfernee Simons BOS 13.7 3.0 2.3
9 Christian Braun DEN 10.9 4.2 2.5
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.8 7.5 1.4
11 Bruce Brown DEN 10.4 5.4 2.5
12 Spencer Jones DEN 9.8 4.1 1.8
13 Luka Garza BOS 8.4 4.7 1.5
14 Sam Hauser BOS 8.1 3.3 1.1
15 Jalen Pickett DEN 7.9 2.6 2.5
16 Jordan Walsh BOS 6.8 4.7 1.0
17 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.7 5.6 1.2
18 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.1 2.5 0.7
19 Josh Minott BOS 4.7 2.2 1.0
20 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.3 1.8 1.1
21 Julian Strawther DEN 4.2 1.4 0.9
22 Chris Boucher BOS 4.1 3.2 0.7
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.8 1.6 0.7
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.6 1.8 0.8
25 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.1 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.