Wednesday, January 7, 2026

NO @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final

100–117

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NO	26	27	13	34	100
ATL	37	28	24	28	117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (NO) games this season

NO away

home ATL

38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Zion Williamson S	31	22	8	6	10/15	0/0	-5
Jordan Poole S	39	21	1	3	7/18	6/13	-7
Bryce McGowens	37	20	2	3	8/15	1/3	-7
Micah Peavy	29	11	5	6	5/12	1/5	-9
Jeremiah Fears S	27	11	4	3	3/11	0/4	-15
Derik Queen S	19	6	10	2	3/9	0/1	-13
Yves Missi	24	5	4	2	1/1	0/0	0
Kevon Looney	5	2	2	0	0/0	0/0	-4
Karlo Matkovic S	13	2	4	1	1/3	0/1	-18
Jordan Hawkins	16	0	0	0	0/2	0/1	-7

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Zaccharie Risacher S	34	25	8	0	8/13	7/9	6
Jalen Johnson S	36	19	8	5	9/18	0/5	6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S	34	17	6	6	6/18	2/12	16
Kristaps Porzingis	22	13	3	2	4/11	4/8	0
Luke Kennard	22	13	0	1	5/6	3/4	3
Dyson Daniels S	35	13	8	8	6/11	0/1	9
Mouhamed Gueye S	31	10	11	6	3/10	1/4	27
Vit Krejci	19	5	4	1	2/5	1/3	17
Asa Newell	7	2	1	1	1/3	0/1	1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Mouhamed Gueye · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1

"Mouhamed Gueye makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Jalen Johnson assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Derik Queen NO

15%

2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL

14%

3 Jalen Johnson ATL

13%

4 Dyson Daniels ATL

13%

5 Jeremiah Fears NO

12%

6 Zion Williamson NO

12%

7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL

12%

8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL

9 Jordan Poole NO

10 Kristaps Porzingis ATL

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

11%

Dunk

10%

Free Throw

Jumper

33%

Layup

40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Jalen Johnson	ATL	27.8	10.7	9.6	19	8	5
2	Zion Williamson	NO	25.1	7.7	3.3	22	8	6
3	Nickeil Alexander-Walker	ATL	21.2	3.5	4.0	17	6	6
4	Onyeka Okongwu	ATL	19.4	8.7	4.5	—	—	—
5	Kristaps Porzingis	ATL	17.9	5.1	2.6	13	3	2
6	Derik Queen	NO	16.6	10.1	5.0	6	10	2
7	Jordan Poole	NO	15.1	3.0	4.0	21	1	3
8	Dyson Daniels	ATL	13.9	7.1	6.6	13	8	8
9	Jeremiah Fears	NO	13.4	4.5	3.2	11	4	3
10	Vit Krejci	ATL	10.8	2.6	1.8	5	4	1
11	Zaccharie Risacher	ATL	10.7	4.3	1.8	25	8	0
12	Bryce McGowens	NO	8.3	2.7	1.5	20	2	3
13	Luke Kennard	ATL	7.4	2.6	2.2	13	0	1
14	Karlo Matkovic	NO	5.9	4.1	0.9	2	4	1
15	Yves Missi	NO	5.6	4.8	1.0	5	4	2
16	Asa Newell	ATL	5.0	2.3	0.8	2	1	1
17	Micah Peavy	NO	4.6	1.9	0.8	11	5	6
18	Jordan Hawkins	NO	3.7	1.7	0.8	0	0	0
19	Trey Alexander	NO	3.5	1.4	0.9	—	—	—
20	N'Faly Dante	ATL	3.4	4.1	0.6	—	—	—
21	Kevon Looney	NO	3.2	5.1	1.3	2	2	0
22	Keaton Wallace	ATL	3.2	1.0	1.2	—	—	—
23	Mouhamed Gueye	ATL	2.8	2.8	0.7	10	11	6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.