NBA games

WSH @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
110–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH30262430110
PHI37253039131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home PHI
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Johnson S 28 20 5 3
Bub Carrington S 40 18 3 7
Bilal Coulibaly S 28 18 1 2
Alex Sarr S 27 15 7 3
Marvin Bagley III 16 9 9 1
Anthony Gill 20 8 4 0
Malaki Branham 31 8 4 8
AJ Johnson 20 6 4 2
Justin Champagnie S 25 6 5 2
Tristan Vukcevic 5 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 25 28 7 2
Paul George S 33 23 4 5
Tyrese Maxey S 28 22 3 8
Quentin Grimes 26 16 1 1
VJ Edgecombe S 35 13 6 7
Dominick Barlow S 23 11 6 2
Andre Drummond 12 11 4 1
Adem Bona 10 2 0 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. 20 2 3 1
Jared McCain 11 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes 10-foot step back jumpshot (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
17%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
6 Tre Johnson WSH
9%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
8 Paul George PHI
8%
9 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
18%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 28.2 4.6 6.9
2 Joel Embiid PHI 26.9 8.9 4.1
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 21.7 4.8 4.4
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.0 5.7 2.1
5 Paul George PHI 17.9 5.6 4.0
6 Alex Sarr WSH 15.6 7.0 2.5
7 Tre Johnson WSH 13.7 3.4 2.8
8 Bub Carrington WSH 13.0 4.4 4.2
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.2 6.5 2.1
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 11.0 3.9 3.4
11 Khris Middleton WSH 10.6 3.9 3.0
12 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.4 7.2 1.3
13 Trendon Watford PHI 10.3 4.8 3.8
14 Marvin Bagley III WSH 9.9 5.3 1.8
15 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.8 4.4 1.4
16 Corey Kispert WSH 8.1 2.4 1.4
17 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.1 3.5 1.2
18 Jared McCain PHI 7.0 3.5 2.2
19 Adem Bona PHI 6.2 5.2 0.9
20 Andre Drummond PHI 5.8 7.9 1.0
21 Malaki Branham WSH 4.3 2.2 0.8
22 Jabari Walker PHI 4.1 3.6 0.6
23 Eric Gordon PHI 3.8 0.5 0.5
24 Justin Edwards PHI 3.2 1.5 0.8
25 AJ Johnson WSH 3.0 1.2 0.8
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.2 1.2 0.5
27 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.8 0.6 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.