NBA games

CHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
93–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI2426271693
DET30222432108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DET
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu 31 24 1 3
Nikola Vucevic S 32 20 16 4
Matas Buzelis S 33 20 3 1
Kevin Huerter S 30 8 3 4
Patrick Williams 15 6 4 1
Tre Jones S 30 6 7 12
Julian Phillips 14 5 2 0
Isaac Okoro S 25 2 4 0
Dalen Terry 12 0 0 1
Jevon Carter 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaiah Stewart S 30 31 3 1
Duncan Robinson S 23 12 1 1
Javonte Green 25 11 2 1
Ronald Holland II 26 11 5 0
Ausar Thompson S 29 11 8 3
Paul Reed S 26 9 6 6
Jaden Ivey S 20 8 3 4
Chaz Lanier 12 8 1 1
Caris LeVert 12 5 2 3
Daniss Jenkins 28 2 6 15

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Stewart · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Isaiah Stewart makes 2-foot layup (Jaden Ivey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
2 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Duncan Robinson DET
10%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
6 Paul Reed DET
10%
7 Isaac Okoro CHI
9%
8 Tre Jones CHI
9%
9 Kevin Huerter CHI
9%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
43%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.3 6.5 11.3
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.3 8.3 4.1
3 Coby White CHI 17.8 4.0 4.2
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 17.0 5.0 2.2
5 Tre Jones CHI 12.0 2.9 4.8
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.9 3.2 3.6
7 Ausar Thompson DET 11.6 6.2 2.1
8 Kevin Huerter CHI 11.4 4.8 2.2
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.8 5.4 1.5
10 Duncan Robinson DET 10.0 2.9 2.0
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.1 2.9 1.3
12 Ronald Holland II DET 8.7 6.0 1.5
13 Jaden Ivey DET 8.6 2.3 1.9
14 Javonte Green DET 8.3 3.3 1.4
15 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.2 1.6 1.8
16 Caris LeVert DET 5.9 2.2 2.2
17 Marcus Sasser DET 5.6 1.6 1.9
18 Jevon Carter CHI 5.4 1.4 1.0
19 Tolu Smith DET 5.0 4.7 1.0
20 Julian Phillips CHI 4.7 1.7 0.7
21 Patrick Williams CHI 4.5 1.8 0.8
22 Paul Reed DET 4.2 3.6 0.8
23 Dalen Terry CHI 4.0 1.8 1.0
24 Chaz Lanier DET 4.0 1.6 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.