NBA games

TOR @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
97–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2520213197
CHA2228222496

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHA
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 35 28 7 1
Immanuel Quickley S 33 21 4 2
Scottie Barnes S 29 17 4 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 25 10 3 2
Brandon Ingram S 11 6 0 2
Jamal Shead 24 4 1 6
Collin Murray-Boyles S 32 4 15 3
Ja'Kobe Walter 19 3 2 2
Ochai Agbaji 12 2 4 0
Jamison Battle 8 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 24 22 2 0
LaMelo Ball S 25 15 7 7
Miles Bridges S 30 12 3 5
Kon Knueppel S 33 11 8 3
PJ Hall 15 8 7 0
Sion James S 28 8 2 3
Liam McNeeley 21 7 2 0
Moussa Diabate S 30 6 11 1
Tidjane Salaun 21 4 6 0
Josh Green 13 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · Layup (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes driving layup (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
16%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
15%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
6 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
9%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
9 LaMelo Ball CHA
7%
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
31%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.8 6.7 3.7
2 Kon Knueppel CHA 22.3 4.3 4.1
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.8 4.0 6.8
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.6 10.2 6.0
5 RJ Barrett TOR 19.1 5.3 3.6
6 Miles Bridges CHA 18.6 7.3 3.5
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.3 4.0 6.3
8 Collin Sexton CHA 13.4 2.7 4.0
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 13.0 6.2 2.5
10 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 8.7 6.7 2.1
11 Jamal Shead TOR 8.6 2.0 5.2
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.9 2.6 1.2
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 7.2 8.5 1.7
14 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.0 4.6 1.2
15 Sion James CHA 6.7 3.7 2.0
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.2 2.5 1.2
17 Gradey Dick TOR 6.0 2.3 1.0
18 Josh Green CHA 5.2 2.0 1.1
19 PJ Hall CHA 4.9 3.8 0.7
20 Tre Mann CHA 4.7 2.0 1.4
21 Liam McNeeley CHA 4.2 2.4 0.9
22 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.4 1.5 0.7
23 Jamison Battle TOR 3.0 1.3 0.6
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.6 0.3
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.