NBA games

DAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
100–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL25213024100
SAC3523202098

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SAC
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 35 20 8 6
Anthony Davis S 36 19 16 2
Brandon Williams 27 18 2 2
Naji Marshall S 32 15 7 1
Max Christie S 36 11 3 2
Daniel Gafford S 22 10 13 0
Klay Thompson 27 6 2 0
Caleb Martin 14 1 1 2
Ryan Nembhard 12 0 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 37 21 2 5
Zach LaVine S 37 20 4 3
Maxime Raynaud S 35 14 9 1
Dennis Schroder 26 11 1 9
Russell Westbrook S 31 11 6 4
Precious Achiuwa S 22 9 9 0
Keon Ellis 23 5 2 0
Dylan Cardwell 11 4 9 1
Nique Clifford 14 3 1 0
Doug McDermott 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Maxime Raynaud SAC
16%
2 Anthony Davis DAL
15%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
4 Russell Westbrook SAC
13%
5 Cooper Flagg DAL
13%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC
9%
8 Max Christie DAL
8%
9 Zach LaVine SAC
0%
10 Caleb Martin DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
32%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 24.7 6.9 6.0
2 Anthony Davis DAL 21.9 11.4 3.2
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.8 4.9 5.3
4 Russell Westbrook SAC 20.4 6.0 6.5
5 Zach LaVine SAC 18.9 3.3 3.3
6 Brandon Williams DAL 15.9 4.1 3.8
7 Naji Marshall DAL 15.8 4.3 2.8
8 Dennis Schroder SAC 14.4 3.5 6.0
9 Maxime Raynaud SAC 14.4 9.8 1.8
10 Max Christie DAL 13.4 3.9 2.4
11 Nique Clifford SAC 10.0 3.8 1.9
12 Klay Thompson DAL 9.7 2.6 1.4
13 Ryan Nembhard DAL 8.5 2.3 5.5
14 Keon Ellis SAC 6.6 2.4 1.2
15 Daniel Gafford DAL 6.4 6.0 0.8
16 Malik Monk SAC 6.3 1.8 1.9
17 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.2 4.4 1.7
18 D'Angelo Russell DAL 5.8 1.2 2.2
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.1 1.3 0.8
20 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.0 2.7 0.6
21 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 4.0 1.4 0.7
22 Dwight Powell DAL 3.9 3.4 0.8
23 Dylan Cardwell SAC 3.7 4.7 0.7
24 Dario Saric SAC 3.5 1.2 0.4
25 Devin Carter SAC 3.3 1.5 1.0
26 Doug McDermott SAC 3.1 0.9 0.5
27 Caleb Martin DAL 2.6 1.3 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.