NBA games

LAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
111–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL29222832111
NO25293217103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home NO
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 33 30 8 8
Luka Doncic S 37 30 2 10
Deandre Ayton S 32 18 11 3
Marcus Smart S 37 13 6 4
Jarred Vanderbilt 29 7 8 4
Dalton Knecht 11 6 0 0
Jake LaRavia S 35 5 5 0
Jaxson Hayes 16 2 3 0
Nick Smith Jr. 10 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 39 42 5 3
Zion Williamson S 33 15 4 5
Derik Queen S 32 10 13 8
Jeremiah Fears S 20 9 4 2
Yves Missi 16 8 6 2
Karlo Matkovic 10 6 2 0
Jose Alvarado 23 5 4 6
Micah Peavy 14 5 2 1
Herbert Jones S 35 3 3 0
Jordan Poole 18 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"LeBron James makes dunk (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
11%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
3 Derik Queen NO
10%
4 Zion Williamson NO
10%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
7 Karlo Matkovic NO
8%
8 Jeremiah Fears NO
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
8%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
39%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.8 7.0 9.6
2 LeBron James LAL 26.5 6.1 6.9
3 Zion Williamson NO 24.4 6.7 3.2
4 Trey Murphy III NO 20.6 5.5 3.9
5 Jordan Poole NO 17.1 2.8 4.3
6 Derik Queen NO 15.4 8.8 4.4
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 13.1 4.2 3.6
8 Jake LaRavia LAL 12.6 5.6 2.7
9 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.5 9.3 1.4
10 Marcus Smart LAL 11.3 3.7 3.6
11 Herbert Jones NO 8.8 3.0 2.1
12 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 8.2 1.7 1.1
13 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 7.3 4.8 1.5
14 Jose Alvarado NO 7.1 2.7 3.5
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.0 4.5 0.9
16 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.3 1.1 1.1
17 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.3 3.7 1.0
18 Yves Missi NO 5.0 4.6 0.9
19 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.2 1.9 0.7
20 Micah Peavy NO 4.2 1.7 0.8
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.9 1.7 0.8
22 Kevon Looney NO 2.9 4.8 1.3
23 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.4 1.5 0.7
24 Bronny James LAL 2.1 0.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.