NBA games

MIA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
94–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2925231794
MIN27343229122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home MIN
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 31 21 3 4
Tyler Herro 29 17 9 3
Andrew Wiggins S 26 10 4 2
Nikola Jovic 26 9 4 3
Bam Adebayo S 28 7 11 3
Pelle Larsson 20 7 2 1
Kel'el Ware S 28 7 11 2
Kasparas Jakucionis 5 5 2 0
Davion Mitchell S 28 4 1 9
Myron Gardner 5 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 29 26 5 3
Jaden McDaniels S 34 19 3 2
Julius Randle S 27 15 11 5
Naz Reid 25 14 6 2
Rudy Gobert S 33 13 16 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 12 5 2
Bones Hyland 12 6 3 5
Joan Beringer 5 6 2 0
Leonard Miller 5 6 3 0
Mike Conley 15 3 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Julius Randle MIN
10%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
4 Kel'el Ware MIA
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
7 Norman Powell MIA
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Anthony Edwards MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
35%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.2 5.3 4.0
2 Norman Powell MIA 23.3 4.3 3.7
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.8 6.1 5.8
4 Tyler Herro MIA 21.0 4.5 2.5
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.7 4.4 4.2
6 Naz Reid MIN 16.5 6.3 2.4
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.2 4.9 2.8
8 Kel'el Ware MIA 15.2 10.5 1.1
9 Bam Adebayo MIA 15.0 10.5 2.8
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.1 4.0 3.4
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.5 5.2 4.8
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.6 11.3 1.7
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.8 2.8 5.9
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 10.2 3.9 3.5
15 Pelle Larsson MIA 8.5 2.6 2.5
16 Bones Hyland MIN 8.4 2.1 3.2
17 Dru Smith MIA 6.9 2.7 2.1
18 Simone Fontecchio MIA 5.5 2.3 1.3
19 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.3 2.1 1.1
20 Mike Conley MIN 5.2 2.0 2.1
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.0 1.8 0.8
22 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.0 1.6 1.7
23 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.5 1.3 0.8
24 Leonard Miller MIN 3.2 1.7 0.7
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.1 2.2 0.3
26 Myron Gardner MIA 3.1 1.6 0.7
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.6 0.9 1.2
28 Joan Beringer MIN 1.8 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.