NBA games

SA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
105–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31232724105
MEM21253624106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MEM
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama 21 30 5 3
Julian Champagnie S 32 23 8 2
Stephon Castle S 28 15 8 4
Keldon Johnson 28 13 5 0
De'Aaron Fox S 30 9 5 8
Luke Kornet S 27 4 7 3
Dylan Harper 18 4 2 3
Jordan McLaughlin 4 3 0 1
Harrison Barnes S 20 2 3 1
Jeremy Sochan 14 2 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 36 21 9 2
Cam Spencer S 30 21 8 8
Jock Landale S 24 19 9 2
Vince Williams Jr. 22 15 6 5
Santi Aldama 24 10 9 2
Jaylen Wells S 28 8 3 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 20 6 3 3
Christian Koloko 18 4 6 1
GG Jackson S 23 2 7 1
Javon Small 16 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes 1-foot dunk (Luke Kornet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
12%
2 Cedric Coward MEM
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Luke Kornet SA
9%
6 Jock Landale MEM
8%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
10 Victor Wembanyama SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
35%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.5 10.3 2.9
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.2 7.1 2.6
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.3 4.1 7.6
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.3 4.3 6.0
5 Santi Aldama MEM 17.3 7.3 3.7
6 Cedric Coward MEM 16.1 7.2 3.8
7 Cam Spencer MEM 14.1 3.1 7.1
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.9 6.1 1.4
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.3 3.7 2.7
10 Jock Landale MEM 11.6 7.3 1.9
11 Luke Kornet SA 11.1 7.6 1.7
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 10.2 2.8 3.2
13 Julian Champagnie SA 9.7 5.9 1.5
14 Dylan Harper SA 9.5 3.6 3.9
15 Harrison Barnes SA 9.2 3.0 1.5
16 GG Jackson MEM 7.8 3.7 1.2
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.2 2.9 4.6
18 Javon Small MEM 5.3 1.7 3.2
19 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.9 1.8 1.3
20 Christian Koloko MEM 3.5 2.8 0.7
21 Lindy Waters III SA 3.1 1.2 0.6
22 John Konchar MEM 3.0 2.3 1.1
23 Jeremy Sochan SA 2.8 2.2 0.5
24 Carter Bryant SA 2.6 1.5 0.6
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.4 0.8 0.7
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.4 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.