NBA games

ORL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
112–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL29213725112
WSH30323919120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home WSH
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jase Richardson 26 20 3 3
Desmond Bane S 24 15 2 3
Paolo Banchero S 25 14 4 4
Tristan da Silva S 22 13 1 1
Goga Bitadze 20 10 5 0
Jett Howard 16 10 6 3
Noah Penda 27 10 4 2
Jonathan Isaac 12 9 8 0
Anthony Black S 21 6 5 4
Tyus Jones 28 3 3 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 38 27 6 5
Alex Sarr S 31 23 7 2
Justin Champagnie 22 17 3 3
Bilal Coulibaly S 34 14 8 3
Marvin Bagley III 17 12 3 0
Khris Middleton S 23 11 7 3
Tre Johnson S 22 6 2 5
Bub Carrington 31 6 5 4
Will Riley 12 4 2 0
Malaki Branham 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes 2-foot running dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 CJ McCollum WSH
11%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
11%
5 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
6 Anthony Black ORL
10%
7 Tre Johnson WSH
9%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
29%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.6 10.8 6.6
2 Anthony Black ORL 24.4 4.5 5.8
3 Desmond Bane ORL 22.3 5.3 5.1
4 CJ McCollum WSH 19.6 4.4 4.5
5 Alex Sarr WSH 15.7 7.1 2.5
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 15.1 7.9 2.2
7 Tre Johnson WSH 14.4 3.6 2.7
8 Bub Carrington WSH 14.0 4.4 4.4
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH 11.8 6.3 2.0
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.5 6.2 2.2
11 Khris Middleton WSH 10.9 3.9 3.3
12 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.9 7.6 1.3
13 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.8 3.6 1.4
14 Jase Richardson ORL 7.7 2.1 1.9
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.3 3.5 1.4
16 Tyus Jones ORL 7.1 2.3 3.2
17 Will Riley WSH 5.9 2.3 1.8
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.3 4.8 1.1
19 Malaki Branham WSH 4.5 2.1 1.0
20 Jamal Cain ORL 4.2 1.4 0.8
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.1 2.8 0.7
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.7 1.7 1.0
23 Noah Penda ORL 3.7 3.2 0.9
24 AJ Johnson WSH 3.2 1.2 1.0
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.8 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.