NBA games

CLE @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
120–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE22313136120
IND28323323116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home IND
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 33 29 2 6
Evan Mobley S 36 20 6 5
Jarrett Allen S 34 19 12 4
Sam Merrill S 31 19 4 2
De'Andre Hunter 22 12 9 2
Craig Porter Jr. 28 8 9 9
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 21 7 3 1
Jaylon Tyson 27 3 2 4
Dean Wade S 8 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 22 4 3
Jay Huff S 31 20 2 2
Andrew Nembhard S 30 15 1 11
Aaron Nesmith S 33 14 8 4
Micah Potter 17 11 2 0
Jarace Walker 18 10 2 3
Johnny Furphy S 31 9 11 2
T.J. McConnell 18 7 0 6
Ben Sheppard 19 6 1 1
Ethan Thompson 9 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 6-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
5 Darius Garland CLE
9%
6 Jaylon Tyson CLE
8%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
8 Dean Wade CLE
7%
9 Micah Potter IND
7%
10 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.8 6.4 4.1
2 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.8 3.4 7.6
3 Darius Garland CLE 20.7 3.0 7.6
4 Evan Mobley CLE 17.2 9.6 3.6
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 16.0 4.6 3.0
6 Jaylon Tyson CLE 14.0 5.2 2.3
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.8 8.3 2.6
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.6 4.2 1.7
9 Sam Merrill CLE 12.5 3.2 2.5
10 T.J. McConnell IND 10.2 3.1 5.2
11 Dean Wade CLE 7.8 4.3 1.5
12 Ben Sheppard IND 7.2 3.0 1.9
13 Jay Huff IND 7.2 4.6 1.6
14 Jarace Walker IND 7.0 2.6 1.6
15 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.8 3.7 0.9
16 Lonzo Ball CLE 6.3 3.4 3.2
17 Johnny Furphy IND 6.2 3.2 0.9
18 Micah Potter IND 5.8 3.1 1.4
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.5 3.9 2.8
20 Ethan Thompson IND 5.2 2.1 1.7
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.0 2.7 0.7
22 Quenton Jackson IND 4.3 1.3 1.1
23 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.2 1.5 1.3
24 Kam Jones IND 3.3 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.