NBA games

UTAH @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
117–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH26312634117
POR36423623137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home POR
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 32 22 4 4
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 21 12 5
Keyonte George S 33 15 4 4
Kyle Filipowski 20 13 5 2
Isaiah Collier 30 10 3 8
Cody Williams 20 8 2 1
Brice Sensabaugh S 23 8 5 4
Svi Mykhailiuk S 20 8 1 0
Taylor Hendricks 19 7 5 1
Walter Clayton Jr. 13 5 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 29 33 8 9
Shaedon Sharpe S 27 29 5 7
Toumani Camara S 35 15 4 3
Sidy Cissoko 25 14 0 2
Caleb Love 28 14 3 4
Donovan Clingan S 33 12 17 2
Kris Murray S 27 10 3 2
Rayan Rupert 19 4 2 1
Yang Hansen 2 4 0 0
Robert Williams III 12 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes 9-foot floating jump shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
3 Deni Avdija POR
10%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
10%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
27%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 29.8 4.8 7.3
2 Deni Avdija POR 27.1 7.5 9.9
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 26.4 7.7 2.5
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.8 4.5 3.5
5 Jerami Grant POR 22.3 4.5 3.8
6 Jrue Holiday POR 20.7 4.9 8.7
7 Donovan Clingan POR 15.4 11.1 2.2
8 Toumani Camara POR 15.3 5.3 3.1
9 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 14.9 9.9 4.6
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 12.8 3.3 2.5
11 Isaiah Collier UTAH 12.7 4.1 8.0
12 Caleb Love POR 12.7 3.1 2.5
13 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 10.4 5.8 1.6
14 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.8 2.5 1.6
15 Kris Murray POR 8.5 4.1 1.8
16 Kyle Anderson UTAH 8.2 3.3 2.5
17 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.6 2.8 2.4
18 Robert Williams III POR 7.0 8.6 1.3
19 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 6.5 1.9 1.7
20 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.8 2.5 1.1
21 Cody Williams UTAH 5.5 1.8 0.8
22 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.3 1.4 1.0
23 Rayan Rupert POR 4.0 1.8 1.0
24 Yang Hansen POR 3.1 2.4 1.0
25 Duop Reath POR 2.8 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.