NBA games

GS @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
102–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS19321338102
LAC31242127103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAC
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 27 4 6
Jimmy Butler III S 33 24 6 2
Gary Payton II 15 14 5 2
Gui Santos 12 6 2 1
Brandin Podziemski 27 6 4 0
Draymond Green S 32 6 5 12
De'Anthony Melton 25 5 2 1
Al Horford 16 5 5 0
Quinten Post S 13 5 2 0
Moses Moody S 19 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 38 24 12 5
Kobe Sanders S 36 20 7 3
John Collins S 39 18 4 1
Kris Dunn S 33 16 3 6
Ivica Zubac S 33 10 11 3
Jordan Miller 22 9 5 3
Nicolas Batum 24 6 3 1
Brook Lopez 15 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kobe Sanders · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Kobe Sanders makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
18%
2 John Collins LAC
12%
3 Moses Moody GS
11%
4 Quinten Post GS
11%
5 Draymond Green GS
10%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
7 Kris Dunn LAC
10%
8 Stephen Curry GS
9%
9 Brook Lopez LAC
8%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
17%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 30.1 7.1 4.6
2 Stephen Curry GS 27.7 4.4 5.1
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.7 5.2 5.2
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 14.6 10.3 2.6
5 John Collins LAC 13.5 4.8 1.8
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.8 3.9 3.8
7 Kris Dunn LAC 10.9 3.4 3.6
8 Draymond Green GS 9.6 4.8 3.7
9 Moses Moody GS 9.1 3.5 1.7
10 Brook Lopez LAC 8.3 3.8 1.5
11 Quinten Post GS 8.3 3.7 1.6
12 Will Richard GS 8.0 2.9 1.3
13 De'Anthony Melton GS 7.4 2.8 1.8
14 Pat Spencer GS 7.1 2.4 3.6
15 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.0 4.4 1.7
16 Buddy Hield GS 7.0 3.3 1.1
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 7.0 2.8 1.2
18 Al Horford GS 6.4 4.3 1.6
19 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.2 2.5 1.8
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.2 4.6 1.0
21 Gary Payton II GS 5.2 2.8 1.7
22 Gui Santos GS 4.7 3.3 1.1
23 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.1 3.0 0.6
24 Kobe Brown LAC 4.0 2.2 1.2
25 Jordan Miller LAC 3.9 2.3 1.0
26 Cam Christie LAC 2.7 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.