NBA games

DEN @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
125–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DEN292929335125
PHI263235274124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home PHI
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Pickett S 42 29 5 7
Peyton Watson S 44 24 7 4
Zeke Nnaji 32 21 8 1
Bruce Brown S 39 19 6 2
Hunter Tyson 19 14 3 1
Spencer Jones S 43 10 3 2
Julian Strawther 15 6 4 5
DaRon Holmes II S 21 2 1 4
Curtis Jones 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 40 32 10 2
Tyrese Maxey S 46 28 6 6
VJ Edgecombe S 42 17 8 9
Quentin Grimes 40 16 4 2
Paul George S 32 8 2 3
Adem Bona 23 8 6 2
Dominick Barlow S 13 6 2 0
Jabari Walker 12 6 4 0
Jared McCain 19 3 0 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Spencer Jones · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Spencer Jones makes 7-foot hook shot (DaRon Holmes II assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
15%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
3 Peyton Watson DEN
13%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
12%
5 Dominick Barlow PHI
11%
6 Paul George PHI
10%
7 Christian Braun DEN
9%
8 Spencer Jones DEN
9%
9 DaRon Holmes II DEN
8%
10 Aaron Gordon DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
19%
Layup
48%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 28.3 4.7 7.0
2 Joel Embiid PHI 25.8 8.3 4.2
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 21.8 4.4 3.9
4 Paul George PHI 19.8 5.8 4.2
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.1 6.0 1.7
6 Peyton Watson DEN 15.8 4.1 1.7
7 Christian Braun DEN 11.4 4.4 2.6
8 Bruce Brown DEN 10.5 5.0 2.7
9 Quentin Grimes PHI 10.2 4.2 3.6
10 Spencer Jones DEN 10.2 4.1 1.7
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.8 4.6 1.4
12 Jared McCain PHI 6.8 3.5 1.9
13 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.5 2.7 2.4
14 Andre Drummond PHI 6.0 7.9 1.1
15 Adem Bona PHI 5.4 4.7 0.8
16 Jabari Walker PHI 4.0 3.4 0.6
17 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.0 2.1 0.9
18 Eric Gordon PHI 3.9 0.5 0.5
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.7 2.2 0.6
20 Julian Strawther DEN 3.5 1.2 0.7
21 Justin Edwards PHI 3.3 1.5 0.8
22 Curtis Jones DEN 2.4 0.8 0.6
23 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.9 0.6 1.0
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.