Monday, January 5, 2026

CHA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final

124–97

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CHA	33	34	32	25	124
OKC	33	17	21	26	97

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (CHA) games this season

CHA away

home OKC

54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Brandon Miller S	31	28	6	1	8/16	7/10	33
Kon Knueppel S	28	23	5	5	8/13	5/7	15
Miles Bridges S	34	17	11	4	6/12	0/6	18
LaMelo Ball S	25	16	2	2	5/10	4/7	10
PJ Hall	20	13	5	1	5/6	1/1	6
Collin Sexton	23	10	1	1	3/9	0/2	6
Moussa Diabate S	29	9	12	5	4/5	0/0	21
Sion James	20	5	3	4	1/3	1/1	15
Liam McNeeley	2	3	0	1	1/1	1/1	3
Pat Connaughton	3	0	0	1	0/0	0/0	0

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S	30	21	2	6	7/21	1/6	-20
Jalen Williams S	28	16	2	4	6/14	1/3	-23
Chet Holmgren S	26	15	6	2	5/11	1/4	-25
Ajay Mitchell	24	11	3	2	4/9	2/4	-5
Aaron Wiggins S	25	11	2	0	4/8	2/4	-26
Kenrich Williams	17	8	3	2	3/6	2/3	-8
Luguentz Dort S	20	5	4	0	2/5	1/4	-20
Isaiah Joe	22	5	4	1	1/7	1/5	-13
Branden Carlson	18	3	4	0	1/5	0/2	4
Cason Wallace	25	2	2	1	1/6	0/3	4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Chet Holmgren · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1

"Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Williams assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Jalen Williams OKC

13%

2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC

11%

3 Chet Holmgren OKC

10%

4 Brandon Miller CHA

10%

5 Miles Bridges CHA

10%

6 Luguentz Dort OKC

7 Kon Knueppel CHA

8 Moussa Diabate CHA

9 LaMelo Ball CHA

10 PJ Hall CHA

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

Dunk

Free Throw

21%

Jumper

35%

Layup

29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	OKC	30.3	4.4	6.9	21	2	6
2	Brandon Miller	CHA	22.4	5.5	3.8	28	6	1
3	Kon Knueppel	CHA	21.8	4.3	4.3	23	5	5
4	Jalen Williams	OKC	19.9	5.3	5.8	16	2	4
5	LaMelo Ball	CHA	19.6	4.0	6.8	16	2	2
6	Miles Bridges	CHA	18.5	6.3	3.6	17	11	4
7	Chet Holmgren	OKC	18.2	8.5	2.0	15	6	2
8	Collin Sexton	CHA	15.0	2.9	4.1	10	1	1
9	Ajay Mitchell	OKC	13.3	4.0	3.6	11	3	2
10	Luguentz Dort	OKC	9.8	3.2	1.3	5	4	0
11	Cason Wallace	OKC	7.0	3.0	1.9	2	2	1
12	Tidjane Salaun	CHA	7.0	4.1	1.1	0	6	0
13	Sion James	CHA	6.9	3.7	1.9	5	3	4
14	Aaron Wiggins	OKC	6.4	2.6	1.4	11	2	0
15	Branden Carlson	OKC	6.0	3.0	0.8	3	4	0
16	Isaiah Joe	OKC	5.9	2.1	1.4	5	4	1
17	Moussa Diabate	CHA	5.7	7.3	1.2	9	12	5
18	Josh Green	CHA	5.4	1.9	1.1	0	1	0
19	Kenrich Williams	OKC	5.3	2.5	1.5	8	3	2
20	Jaylin Williams	OKC	5.2	3.7	2.1	—	—	—
21	Liam McNeeley	CHA	4.5	2.4	0.9	3	0	1
22	PJ Hall	CHA	4.1	3.5	0.6	13	5	1
23	Tre Mann	CHA	3.6	1.6	1.0	0	0	0
24	Chris Youngblood	OKC	3.4	1.5	0.8	0	1	0
25	Pat Connaughton	CHA	2.4	1.0	0.4	0	0	1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.