NBA games

PHX @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
97–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX2931181997
HOU25292422100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home HOU
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 33 27 0 3
Royce O'Neale S 31 15 6 3
Dillon Brooks S 34 15 4 2
Collin Gillespie S 25 11 6 4
Jordan Goodwin 25 11 1 2
Oso Ighodaro 27 9 8 2
Ryan Dunn 17 5 1 0
Mark Williams S 21 4 8 1
Grayson Allen 22 0 3 6
Rasheer Fleming 5 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 26 10 4
Amen Thompson S 37 17 7 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 38 17 7 3
Tari Eason S 30 12 8 2
Reed Sheppard 23 11 3 2
Steven Adams S 31 8 11 2
Aaron Holiday 10 4 0 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 14 3 4 1
Clint Capela 9 2 1 0
Josh Okogie 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Gillespie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot running jump shot (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
15%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Mark Williams PHX
10%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
5 Steven Adams HOU
8%
6 Dillon Brooks PHX
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Collin Gillespie PHX
8%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
10 Tari Eason HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
21%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 28.0 6.0 6.1
2 Devin Booker PHX 27.6 4.1 5.8
3 Amen Thompson HOU 21.0 8.3 5.3
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 19.9 3.2 1.9
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 16.3 3.9 5.7
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.4 7.4 2.0
7 Grayson Allen PHX 14.7 2.0 3.3
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.7 2.8 3.8
9 Tari Eason HOU 11.0 6.0 1.4
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.2 4.7 2.4
11 Mark Williams PHX 10.2 7.0 1.1
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.6 3.5 2.3
13 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.7 6.0 1.7
14 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.5 4.7 1.8
15 Josh Okogie HOU 6.2 2.6 1.2
16 Steven Adams HOU 5.4 6.2 1.0
17 Clint Capela HOU 5.0 4.8 0.7
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.1 2.4 0.7
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.8 1.9 0.9
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.6 1.4 0.8
21 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.6 1.3 0.4
22 Isaiah Crawford HOU 3.3 1.7 0.5
23 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.9 2.2 0.8
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.3 1.2 0.4
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.2 1.5 0.4
26 Jeff Green HOU 1.7 0.6 0.3
27 Nick Richards PHX 1.6 2.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.