NBA games

ATL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
100–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL26232427100
TOR31302532118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home TOR
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 36 17 12 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 22 16 4 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 14 5 4
Jalen Johnson S 37 13 14 7
Dyson Daniels S 39 11 6 3
Luke Kennard 22 10 0 4
Vit Krejci 27 10 2 2
Kristaps Porzingis 20 9 1 1
Mouhamed Gueye 3 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 35 19 9 3
Scottie Barnes S 37 18 8 10
RJ Barrett S 31 17 6 4
Collin Murray-Boyles S 31 17 7 7
Immanuel Quickley S 31 16 3 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 23 12 6 3
Gradey Dick 18 11 3 0
Jamal Shead 17 5 2 5
Ja'Kobe Walter 12 3 1 0
Ochai Agbaji 6 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes 1-foot driving floating jump shot (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
12%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
7 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
9 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
8%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
26%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 26.8 10.4 8.8
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 25.1 6.7 4.3
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.3 11.4 5.9
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.8 3.7 3.3
5 RJ Barrett TOR 19.6 5.2 4.0
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.0 4.2 6.7
7 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 17.3 5.1 2.5
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.0 7.7 3.6
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.5 7.2 6.2
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 13.0 6.7 2.5
11 Vit Krejci ATL 9.7 2.5 1.4
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.3 3.9 1.4
13 Jamal Shead TOR 9.0 2.4 5.8
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.5 2.5 1.4
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 7.3 5.9 1.9
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.8 3.0 1.3
17 Gradey Dick TOR 6.0 2.3 1.1
18 Luke Kennard ATL 5.9 2.3 1.8
19 Asa Newell ATL 5.4 2.5 0.8
20 Mo Bamba TOR 3.8 2.2 0.9
21 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.7 1.2 0.4
22 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.7 1.3 1.2
23 Jamison Battle TOR 3.3 1.4 0.7
24 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.1 2.6 0.6
25 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.7 1.2 0.5
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.9 0.7 0.4
27 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.8 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.