NBA games

CHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
101–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI14193434101
BOS31233130115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home BOS
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 31 26 3 2
Nikola Vucevic S 36 15 15 7
Ayo Dosunmu 28 15 3 5
Tre Jones S 23 10 5 4
Kevin Huerter S 20 8 3 0
Julian Phillips 13 6 2 0
Jevon Carter 12 6 1 1
Coby White 25 5 6 3
Isaac Okoro S 25 5 3 1
Dalen Terry 5 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons 27 27 3 3
Payton Pritchard S 31 21 6 5
Jaylen Brown S 35 14 8 4
Neemias Queta S 25 13 13 1
Derrick White S 37 10 6 7
Sam Hauser S 21 9 1 1
Luka Garza 23 8 4 0
Hugo Gonzalez 12 5 7 1
Jordan Walsh 18 5 5 0
Baylor Scheierman 11 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Layup (2 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derrick White BOS
13%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
5 Coby White CHI
10%
6 Payton Pritchard BOS
10%
7 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
8 Tre Jones CHI
8%
9 Sam Hauser BOS
8%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
14%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.6 6.4 6.9
2 Derrick White BOS 22.3 5.0 5.6
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.3 7.9 3.7
4 Coby White CHI 17.5 3.5 3.9
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.2 4.7 6.3
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.4 5.0 2.0
7 Anfernee Simons BOS 12.0 2.8 2.2
8 Tre Jones CHI 11.9 2.5 5.6
9 Kevin Huerter CHI 11.3 4.7 2.4
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.6 6.9 1.3
11 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 10.5 2.9 3.7
12 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.6 2.8 1.4
13 Luka Garza BOS 8.0 4.1 1.5
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.9 3.6 1.2
15 Jordan Walsh BOS 7.2 4.7 1.1
16 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.6 5.1 1.2
17 Josh Minott BOS 5.4 2.3 1.1
18 Patrick Williams CHI 5.2 2.0 1.0
19 Julian Phillips CHI 4.9 1.8 0.7
20 Jevon Carter CHI 4.4 0.9 0.7
21 Dalen Terry CHI 4.3 2.2 1.1
22 Chris Boucher BOS 4.1 3.0 0.7
23 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.6 1.7 0.8
24 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.0 1.4 0.8
25 Max Shulga BOS 2.7 1.3 0.8
26 Amari Williams BOS 2.6 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.