NBA games

NY @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
90–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY2925152190
DET30342532121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home DET
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 31 25 3 0
Miles McBride 25 17 2 2
Mikal Bridges S 26 10 0 1
Tyler Kolek 19 9 3 1
Jordan Clarkson 20 8 1 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 23 6 1 1
OG Anunoby S 29 5 2 1
Kevin McCullar Jr. 16 4 3 3
Mitchell Robinson S 25 2 10 1
Pacome Dadiet 5 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 29 29 3 13
Javonte Green 29 17 2 1
Jaden Ivey 22 16 3 1
Daniss Jenkins 23 12 0 4
Ausar Thompson S 20 10 7 1
Duncan Robinson S 21 9 5 0
Paul Reed S 26 8 8 1
Marcus Sasser 5 8 0 1
Isaiah Stewart S 32 7 9 0
Ronald Holland II 24 5 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
4 OG Anunoby NY
11%
5 Duncan Robinson DET
10%
6 Paul Reed DET
9%
7 Mitchell Robinson NY
9%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
9 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
27%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.5 3.6 6.6
2 Cade Cunningham DET 27.1 6.7 11.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.7 10.4 2.4
4 Mikal Bridges NY 17.2 4.3 4.9
5 OG Anunoby NY 17.1 6.3 2.8
6 Miles McBride NY 14.2 3.1 2.2
7 Ausar Thompson DET 11.0 6.0 2.0
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.5 5.5 1.4
9 Jordan Clarkson NY 10.1 2.1 1.3
10 Duncan Robinson DET 9.8 2.7 2.0
11 Tyler Kolek NY 9.0 3.5 4.3
12 Ronald Holland II DET 8.5 5.8 1.4
13 Jaden Ivey DET 8.2 2.2 2.1
14 Javonte Green DET 7.2 3.2 1.3
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.1 8.9 1.5
16 Marcus Sasser DET 5.6 1.4 2.1
17 Tolu Smith DET 5.3 5.5 0.9
18 Daniss Jenkins DET 5.1 1.5 1.4
19 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 4.6 2.4 1.7
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.5 2.0 0.8
21 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.5 1.9 0.7
22 Paul Reed DET 4.1 3.7 0.9
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.7 3.9 0.8
24 Chaz Lanier DET 3.2 1.3 0.7
25 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.3 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.