NBA games

MEM @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
114–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM34312227114
LAL26282937120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Wells S 25 23 1 2
Cedric Coward S 13 16 8 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 14 3 1
Jock Landale S 29 13 10 3
Santi Aldama 31 12 10 7
GG Jackson 22 11 6 1
Javon Small 16 7 3 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 25 7 2 0
Christian Koloko 13 6 2 0
Cam Spencer S 34 5 2 9
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 36 9 8
LeBron James S 37 26 7 10
Jake LaRavia S 35 26 5 4
Deandre Ayton S 34 15 8 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 22 7 7 3
Marcus Smart S 31 6 1 4
Dalton Knecht 13 3 2 0
Jaxson Hayes 14 1 6 0
Nick Smith Jr. 15 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes 9-foot two point shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
15%
2 LeBron James LAL
13%
3 Cedric Coward MEM
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
12%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
9%
8 Christian Koloko MEM
9%
9 Jake LaRavia LAL
8%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
21%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.0 7.1 9.6
2 LeBron James LAL 26.5 6.2 6.5
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.1 7.3 2.9
4 Santi Aldama MEM 19.1 6.9 3.2
5 Cedric Coward MEM 16.5 7.1 4.0
6 Cam Spencer MEM 16.0 3.3 6.6
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.6 4.0 2.5
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.6 8.9 1.3
9 Marcus Smart LAL 11.6 3.9 3.5
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 11.6 2.8 3.6
11 Jock Landale MEM 11.5 6.3 1.8
12 Jake LaRavia LAL 10.6 5.1 2.2
13 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 8.1 1.7 1.1
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.2 4.4 0.9
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.8 4.3 1.3
16 GG Jackson MEM 6.7 3.2 1.1
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.6 2.9 4.7
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.0 1.1 1.1
19 Javon Small MEM 4.1 1.2 2.7
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.0 1.5 0.7
21 Christian Koloko MEM 3.6 3.4 0.8
22 John Konchar MEM 3.3 2.3 1.1
23 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.2 1.5 0.7
24 Bronny James LAL 2.0 0.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.