NBA games

MIL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
115–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL28342330115
SAC2618252998

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home SAC
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 37 11 1
Kevin Porter Jr. S 40 25 4 10
Myles Turner S 32 15 5 0
Gary Trent Jr. 22 13 1 3
Ryan Rollins S 34 12 6 3
Bobby Portis 16 9 11 0
Kyle Kuzma 18 3 4 4
AJ Green S 32 1 5 1
Gary Harris 15 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 38 21 6 3
Zach LaVine 36 20 3 4
Dennis Schroder 26 13 3 5
Keegan Murray S 27 12 3 0
DeMar DeRozan S 29 11 4 3
Nique Clifford 19 7 2 1
Maxime Raynaud S 24 6 8 1
Drew Eubanks 21 4 4 0
Precious Achiuwa S 15 4 3 0
Keon Ellis 5 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Porter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Kevin Porter Jr. makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
2 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
4 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
9%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 AJ Green MIL
7%
9 Myles Turner MIL
7%
10 Precious Achiuwa SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
23%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 25.5 9.4 5.3
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.7 4.5 5.1
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 19.6 4.5 6.2
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 19.6 6.3 8.8
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.0 6.1 6.6
6 Bobby Portis MIL 17.8 7.7 1.9
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.7 6.3 2.5
8 Zach LaVine SAC 16.5 2.8 2.7
9 Dennis Schroder SAC 15.0 3.2 5.4
10 Maxime Raynaud SAC 14.3 8.9 1.6
11 Keegan Murray SAC 13.6 5.8 1.9
12 Myles Turner MIL 11.7 4.9 1.6
13 AJ Green MIL 9.1 2.3 1.9
14 Nique Clifford SAC 8.8 3.4 1.7
15 Keon Ellis SAC 7.1 2.2 1.4
16 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 7.0 1.9 1.3
17 Malik Monk SAC 6.9 2.0 2.0
18 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.8 4.7 1.6
19 Jericho Sims MIL 5.6 3.8 1.1
20 Gary Harris MIL 4.1 1.5 0.7
21 Devin Carter SAC 4.0 1.8 1.3
22 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.8 2.5 0.6
23 Doug McDermott SAC 3.7 1.2 0.7
24 Dario Saric SAC 3.1 1.2 0.4
25 Cole Anthony MIL 2.5 1.1 1.2
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.2 0.8 0.8
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 1.0 0.3
28 Amir Coffey MIL 1.5 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.