NBA games

OKC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
105–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC26232432105
PHX20223234108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home PHX
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 25 0 6
Jalen Williams S 34 23 4 7
Chet Holmgren S 33 18 9 1
Ajay Mitchell 27 13 2 3
Luguentz Dort S 27 13 4 0
Aaron Wiggins 19 5 4 0
Kenrich Williams 7 3 2 0
Cason Wallace S 18 3 0 0
Alex Caruso 22 2 1 3
Isaiah Joe 10 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Goodwin 31 26 4 0
Devin Booker S 38 24 6 9
Dillon Brooks S 34 22 4 2
Ryan Dunn 21 9 8 2
Collin Gillespie S 26 8 3 3
Mark Williams S 21 8 6 0
Oso Ighodaro 24 5 8 0
Royce O'Neale S 32 3 6 3
Isaiah Livers 5 3 2 1
Jamaree Bouyea 9 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
4 Devin Booker PHX
11%
5 Mark Williams PHX
10%
6 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
8 Collin Gillespie PHX
8%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
24%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.7 5.0 6.7
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.2 4.3 5.6
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 19.3 3.5 1.9
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.2 8.6 1.9
5 Jalen Williams OKC 17.9 5.8 5.1
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 16.1 4.6 5.8
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 12.7 4.1 3.5
8 Mark Williams PHX 11.8 7.9 1.4
9 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.9 5.2 2.6
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.9 3.9 2.4
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.6 3.3 1.2
12 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 8.1 3.2 1.7
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.5 3.2 1.7
14 Branden Carlson OKC 7.5 3.5 0.8
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.0 2.6 1.4
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.9 6.4 1.9
17 Alex Caruso OKC 6.8 3.7 1.3
18 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.2 2.2 1.5
19 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.0 4.8 1.7
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.8 2.9 1.7
21 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.7 1.7 0.5
22 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.5 2.8 0.8
23 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.4 1.6 0.6
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.5 1.5 0.5
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.4 2.0 0.5
26 Nick Richards PHX 1.7 3.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.