NBA games

MIN @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
141–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN38353533141
WSH28302136115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home WSH
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 30 35 6 3
Julius Randle S 25 22 3 4
Rudy Gobert S 29 18 14 0
Jaden McDaniels S 22 12 5 5
Jaylen Clark 28 12 2 3
Naz Reid 20 9 7 3
Bones Hyland 15 7 2 5
Mike Conley 13 7 2 3
Johnny Juzang 9 6 1 0
Leonard Miller 11 6 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 22 20 3 2
Corey Kispert 18 13 1 0
Tre Johnson S 27 13 3 3
Khris Middleton S 18 10 2 1
Tristan Vukcevic 13 8 2 2
Bub Carrington 17 7 0 4
Alex Sarr S 26 7 3 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 28 6 4 1
Will Riley 14 6 3 1
Marvin Bagley III 14 6 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 4-foot two point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
2 CJ McCollum WSH
12%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
7 Tre Johnson WSH
9%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
6%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.6 5.7 4.2
2 Julius Randle MIN 22.5 6.7 5.6
3 CJ McCollum WSH 19.0 4.6 4.2
4 Alex Sarr WSH 17.1 7.9 2.2
5 Naz Reid MIN 16.4 6.7 2.4
6 Bub Carrington WSH 13.9 4.7 4.1
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.6 4.3 3.3
8 Tre Johnson WSH 13.6 3.5 2.2
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.1 5.3 5.1
10 Marvin Bagley III WSH 12.7 7.1 2.2
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.5 6.2 2.2
12 Khris Middleton WSH 10.8 4.2 4.1
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.5 11.5 1.9
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.2 8.2 1.2
15 Bones Hyland MIN 9.1 2.5 3.2
16 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 7.6 3.2 1.0
17 Corey Kispert WSH 7.5 2.3 1.4
18 Will Riley WSH 6.0 2.3 1.6
19 Mike Conley MIN 5.0 2.1 2.0
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.2 1.8 0.7
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.1 1.5 1.4
22 Malaki Branham WSH 2.9 1.5 0.7
23 AJ Johnson WSH 2.9 1.1 0.8
24 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.5 0.9 0.5
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.4 1.2 0.5
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.8 0.5 1.1
27 Anthony Gill WSH 1.6 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.