NBA games

NO @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
106–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO39231529106
MIA43272332125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MIA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 38 27 8 5
Jeremiah Fears S 26 21 3 2
Derik Queen S 30 13 6 4
Zion Williamson S 26 12 5 2
Jordan Poole 25 8 1 8
Jose Alvarado 20 6 6 3
Yves Missi 17 6 5 1
Bryce McGowens 16 5 2 0
Micah Peavy 14 4 1 1
Karlo Matkovic S 24 4 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 29 34 3 3
Nikola Jovic 26 19 6 3
Kel'el Ware S 25 16 12 1
Pelle Larsson 26 16 3 6
Bam Adebayo S 29 12 6 6
Andrew Wiggins S 28 10 2 3
Davion Mitchell S 29 9 3 6
Myron Gardner 13 4 3 0
Kasparas Jakucionis 16 3 1 1
Dru Smith 19 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Davion Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
9%
2 Derik Queen NO
9%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
4 Zion Williamson NO
8%
5 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
9 Jordan Poole NO
8%
10 Jeremiah Fears NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
35%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.5 6.9 3.3
2 Norman Powell MIA 23.9 4.3 4.1
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.7 4.5 2.7
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 20.4 4.7 4.7
5 Trey Murphy III NO 19.8 5.2 3.7
6 Jordan Poole NO 18.9 2.9 3.7
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.5 5.0 3.1
8 Derik Queen NO 15.8 8.9 4.7
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 15.6 11.1 1.4
10 Bam Adebayo MIA 15.1 12.0 2.8
11 Jeremiah Fears NO 12.8 4.2 3.5
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.6 2.9 6.5
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.5 3.5 3.8
14 Bryce McGowens NO 9.4 2.8 1.6
15 Dru Smith MIA 8.0 2.7 2.3
16 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.3 2.2 2.5
17 Jose Alvarado NO 7.1 2.7 3.5
18 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.0 2.5 1.6
19 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.6 2.3 1.3
20 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.1 3.6 0.9
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.8 1.8 0.9
22 Yves Missi NO 4.8 4.9 0.8
23 Micah Peavy NO 4.2 1.8 0.8
24 Kevon Looney NO 3.8 5.1 1.5
25 Myron Gardner MIA 3.5 1.6 0.8
26 Trey Alexander NO 3.1 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.