NBA games

DEN @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
115–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29233231115
BKN33264127127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home BKN
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 40 27 6 16
Tim Hardaway Jr. 34 26 2 1
Peyton Watson S 29 23 4 2
Aaron Gordon 21 20 6 2
DaRon Holmes II S 15 6 1 1
Zeke Nnaji 18 4 3 1
Jalen Pickett 14 3 4 3
Spencer Jones S 27 3 1 0
Christian Braun S 24 3 2 0
Bruce Brown 18 0 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 27 11 5
Noah Clowney S 29 22 6 2
Cam Thomas 22 17 4 1
Day'Ron Sharpe S 32 17 6 4
Egor Demin S 27 13 4 4
Ziaire Williams 19 13 3 1
Terance Mann S 26 6 4 6
Nolan Traore 18 5 3 4
Drake Powell 18 5 0 1
Danny Wolf 17 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terance Mann · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Terance Mann makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
3 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
4 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN
9%
5 Christian Braun DEN
7%
6 Terance Mann BKN
7%
7 Danny Wolf BKN
7%
8 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
10 DaRon Holmes II DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
32%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 27.0 7.9 4.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 26.1 4.7 6.9
3 Cam Thomas BKN 22.4 2.5 3.6
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.0 6.0 1.7
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 14.1 3.2 1.4
6 Peyton Watson DEN 14.0 4.1 1.5
7 Egor Demin BKN 13.2 3.4 3.7
8 Noah Clowney BKN 12.9 4.6 2.2
9 Christian Braun DEN 12.4 4.5 3.0
10 Spencer Jones DEN 10.2 4.2 1.6
11 Bruce Brown DEN 9.9 5.4 2.7
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.8 2.5 1.3
13 Terance Mann BKN 8.8 3.9 3.9
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.8 6.3 3.6
15 Danny Wolf BKN 8.6 3.8 2.5
16 Drake Powell BKN 6.4 1.8 1.8
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.1 2.5 2.3
18 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.6 2.4 1.6
19 Nolan Traore BKN 5.2 1.7 1.9
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.1 1.7 0.8
21 Julian Strawther DEN 3.7 1.4 0.6
22 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.7 1.9 0.9
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.2 1.7 0.5
24 Curtis Jones DEN 2.3 0.7 0.5
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.