NBA games

IND @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
127–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND36224227127
ORL28413828135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home ORL
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 34 7 5
Aaron Nesmith S 34 25 4 8
Andrew Nembhard S 35 20 1 11
Jay Huff 17 11 5 1
Micah Potter S 29 11 10 2
T.J. McConnell 21 10 4 5
Ben Sheppard 24 8 3 2
Jarace Walker 16 6 1 3
Johnny Furphy S 13 2 5 1
Tony Bradley 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 37 31 6 6
Paolo Banchero S 36 28 12 5
Anthony Black S 36 27 3 10
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 18 12 4
Jase Richardson 27 12 1 4
Tristan da Silva S 28 10 0 0
Jonathan Isaac 12 4 0 3
Tyus Jones 14 3 0 2
Goga Bitadze 16 2 2 0
Jett Howard 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Black · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Anthony Black makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
16%
2 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
14%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
14%
4 Anthony Black ORL
13%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
13%
6 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
8 Micah Potter IND
8%
9 Tony Bradley IND
0%
10 Jay Huff IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
16%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.6 10.1 6.1
2 Anthony Black ORL 24.0 5.0 5.1
3 Pascal Siakam IND 23.0 6.1 3.9
4 Desmond Bane ORL 21.0 5.4 5.0
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.3 3.4 6.8
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.6 4.8 2.3
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.7 7.5 2.1
8 T.J. McConnell IND 9.5 2.9 4.9
9 Ben Sheppard IND 8.2 3.1 1.9
10 Jarace Walker IND 7.7 3.1 1.4
11 Jay Huff IND 7.4 4.3 1.5
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.4 4.0 1.4
13 Tyus Jones ORL 7.1 2.4 2.9
14 Jase Richardson ORL 7.1 2.2 1.6
15 Johnny Furphy IND 6.5 3.0 0.9
16 Ethan Thompson IND 6.0 2.4 1.9
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 5.5 1.1
18 Micah Potter IND 5.7 2.8 1.3
19 Quenton Jackson IND 5.3 1.8 1.3
20 Jamal Cain ORL 4.8 1.8 0.8
21 Noah Penda ORL 3.8 3.3 1.0
22 Kam Jones IND 3.5 1.3 0.7
23 Jett Howard ORL 3.4 1.3 0.8
24 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.0 2.5 0.3
25 Taelon Peter IND 3.0 1.2 0.6
26 Tony Bradley IND 2.6 2.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.