NBA games

DET @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
114–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET19472127114
CLE28282628110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CLE
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 27 6 7
Daniss Jenkins 25 25 1 5
Duncan Robinson S 30 12 2 3
Javonte Green 24 11 4 1
Ausar Thompson S 22 8 8 2
Paul Reed S 30 8 8 4
Isaiah Stewart S 31 8 3 2
Ronald Holland II 18 8 10 0
Jaden Ivey 19 7 2 0
Marcus Sasser 3 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 30 6 3
Darius Garland S 32 16 2 6
Sam Merrill S 27 15 3 2
Evan Mobley S 33 15 4 5
De'Andre Hunter 24 14 6 0
Thomas Bryant 15 7 4 1
Jaylon Tyson S 25 6 7 3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 18 5 4 0
Craig Porter Jr. 23 2 6 1
Lonzo Ball 10 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
6 Jaylon Tyson CLE
10%
7 Duncan Robinson DET
10%
8 Darius Garland CLE
10%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
10 Paul Reed DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
34%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.4 4.6 6.3
2 Cade Cunningham DET 26.8 6.4 10.5
3 Darius Garland CLE 21.6 3.0 7.4
4 Evan Mobley CLE 17.3 9.1 3.5
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE 14.9 5.8 2.1
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.7 8.0 2.5
7 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.1 3.9 1.6
8 Sam Merrill CLE 11.8 2.9 2.4
9 Ausar Thompson DET 11.6 5.7 1.8
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.8 5.3 1.5
11 Duncan Robinson DET 9.5 2.9 1.9
12 Jaden Ivey DET 8.5 2.2 2.4
13 Ronald Holland II DET 8.5 5.1 1.4
14 Javonte Green DET 6.9 3.0 1.3
15 Lonzo Ball CLE 6.4 3.6 3.2
16 Marcus Sasser DET 6.0 1.4 2.1
17 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.9 3.4 0.8
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.4 3.6 2.6
19 Tolu Smith DET 5.2 5.4 0.9
20 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.1 3.1 0.7
21 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.6 1.6 1.3
22 Paul Reed DET 4.0 3.3 0.8
23 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.7 1.7 1.0
24 Daniss Jenkins DET 3.2 1.1 1.0
25 Chaz Lanier DET 3.2 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.