NBA games

BOS @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
146–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS42294233146
LAC28353616115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home LAC
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 50 3 5
Derrick White S 37 29 4 7
Anfernee Simons 19 15 3 4
Jordan Walsh 30 13 13 2
Payton Pritchard S 40 12 4 8
Luka Garza 20 11 6 3
Sam Hauser S 21 8 3 0
Neemias Queta S 23 8 9 1
Josh Minott 3 0 1 0
Baylor Scheierman 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 34 22 3 3
John Collins S 29 22 2 0
Derrick Jones Jr. 25 19 4 2
James Harden S 34 18 3 12
Kris Dunn S 30 10 4 6
Nicolas Batum 16 6 2 1
Brook Lopez S 13 6 1 0
Ivica Zubac 21 4 7 1
Kobe Brown 6 4 1 1
Jordan Miller 6 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointer (Payton Pritchard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derrick White BOS
15%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 James Harden LAC
9%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
8%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC
7%
8 John Collins LAC
6%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
6%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
17%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 31.2 6.9 5.7
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 28.7 6.7 4.3
3 James Harden LAC 24.4 3.5 6.8
4 Derrick White BOS 21.0 5.0 4.9
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.5 4.6 5.6
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.2 9.7 2.5
7 John Collins LAC 13.0 4.5 1.9
8 Anfernee Simons BOS 10.7 2.6 1.8
9 Kris Dunn LAC 10.2 3.4 3.5
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.1 6.8 1.4
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.4 3.2 1.5
12 Brook Lopez LAC 7.1 3.8 1.4
13 Sam Hauser BOS 7.1 3.4 1.0
14 Jordan Walsh BOS 6.7 3.7 0.8
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.7 2.6 1.4
16 Luka Garza BOS 6.2 3.5 1.1
17 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.2 5.0 1.0
18 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.2 2.3 1.6
19 Chris Boucher BOS 3.8 2.9 0.5
20 Kobe Brown LAC 3.8 2.3 1.0
21 Jordan Miller LAC 3.7 2.3 1.0
22 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.7 2.9 0.6
23 Josh Minott BOS 3.6 1.8 0.6
24 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.5 1.1 0.6
25 Cam Christie LAC 2.5 1.4 0.7
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.0 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.