NBA games

HOU @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
104–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU31192529104
DAL25323023110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DAL
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 34 5 7
Amen Thompson S 39 20 12 4
Tari Eason S 34 19 10 2
Reed Sheppard 22 8 0 5
Clint Capela 27 8 8 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 7 9 3
Dorian Finney-Smith 16 3 5 0
Jae'Sean Tate 6 3 1 0
Josh Okogie 6 2 0 0
Alperen Sengun S 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 39 26 12 3
Max Christie S 35 24 7 2
Brandon Williams 24 15 7 3
Cooper Flagg S 35 10 7 6
Naji Marshall 33 10 2 5
Daniel Gafford S 19 9 8 1
Klay Thompson 22 9 3 1
Ryan Nembhard 13 5 0 3
Caleb Martin 7 2 0 0
P.J. Washington S 12 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Tari Eason assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
15%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
15%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
5 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
7 Kevin Durant HOU
8%
8 Max Christie DAL
7%
9 Tari Eason HOU
6%
10 Ryan Nembhard DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
24%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.6 5.4 6.1
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.9 10.6 6.8
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 24.6 6.4 5.9
4 Amen Thompson HOU 21.2 8.3 6.1
5 Anthony Davis DAL 20.4 10.9 3.0
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.8 7.5 2.4
7 Naji Marshall DAL 15.7 3.9 2.6
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.9 3.2 3.7
9 Brandon Williams DAL 14.1 3.3 3.9
10 P.J. Washington DAL 13.5 6.9 1.6
11 Max Christie DAL 11.3 3.2 2.1
12 Tari Eason HOU 10.6 5.5 1.5
13 Klay Thompson DAL 8.6 2.5 1.2
14 Ryan Nembhard DAL 7.6 2.2 5.2
15 Josh Okogie HOU 6.7 2.8 1.5
16 D'Angelo Russell DAL 5.8 1.0 2.0
17 Daniel Gafford DAL 5.8 4.9 0.7
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.9 1.4 0.9
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.6 1.4 0.9
20 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.1 2.2 0.9
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.0 2.3 1.0
22 Dwight Powell DAL 3.8 3.2 0.7
23 Clint Capela HOU 3.8 4.5 0.4
24 Caleb Martin DAL 2.7 1.4 0.9
25 JD Davison HOU 2.5 1.3 0.9
26 Jeff Green HOU 2.2 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.