NBA games

POR @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
115–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR35203228115
SA24272930110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SA
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 39 29 10 10
Donovan Clingan S 34 24 12 4
Toumani Camara S 36 20 8 1
Caleb Love 28 16 5 2
Sidy Cissoko 22 7 6 1
Kris Murray S 27 6 3 1
Shaedon Sharpe S 28 6 3 3
Rayan Rupert 15 5 2 1
Yang Hansen 11 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luke Kornet S 31 23 8 3
Julian Champagnie S 33 20 10 4
De'Aaron Fox S 35 19 6 4
Stephon Castle S 37 16 5 9
Harrison Barnes S 32 14 4 1
Dylan Harper 23 6 3 3
Kelly Olynyk 14 5 3 2
Keldon Johnson 24 5 8 1
Carter Bryant 5 2 1 0
Lindy Waters III 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Clingan · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Donovan Clingan makes alley oop layup (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
13%
2 Jerami Grant POR
11%
3 Deni Avdija POR
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
5 Stephon Castle SA
11%
6 Luke Kornet SA
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Kris Murray POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
42%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.6 7.1 9.2
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.3 4.5 3.4
3 Jerami Grant POR 21.1 4.5 3.5
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.6 4.2 7.9
5 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.6 4.1 6.0
6 Keldon Johnson SA 13.4 5.7 1.3
7 Toumani Camara POR 13.1 4.6 3.0
8 Donovan Clingan POR 12.6 10.0 1.9
9 Caleb Love POR 11.8 2.5 2.4
10 Dylan Harper SA 11.7 3.8 3.5
11 Luke Kornet SA 10.1 7.2 1.7
12 Harrison Barnes SA 9.5 3.1 1.6
13 Julian Champagnie SA 8.7 5.3 1.3
14 Kris Murray POR 8.2 4.5 1.7
15 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.4 2.5 2.1
16 Robert Williams III POR 6.9 8.1 1.2
17 Blake Wesley POR 6.2 2.5 3.0
18 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.0 1.3 0.8
19 Stanley Umude SA 4.9 1.6 0.7
20 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.0 1.8 1.1
21 Lindy Waters III SA 3.6 1.5 0.7
22 Rayan Rupert POR 3.6 1.7 0.9
23 Carter Bryant SA 3.1 1.8 0.7
24 Duop Reath POR 3.0 1.4 0.7
25 Jeremy Sochan SA 2.9 2.2 0.6
26 Yang Hansen POR 2.8 2.0 0.8
27 David Jones Garcia SA 2.7 0.9 1.3
28 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.5 0.9 0.7
29 Javonte Cooke POR 1.9 0.6 0.5
30 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.