NBA games

CHA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
112–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA27233230112
CHI3919172499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CHI
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 35 26 14 1
Brandon Miller S 36 22 6 4
Kon Knueppel S 33 18 5 1
LaMelo Ball S 26 17 6 7
Collin Sexton 20 13 2 3
PJ Hall S 22 10 6 0
Josh Green 25 3 3 3
Sion James 30 3 7 3
Liam McNeeley 13 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 34 28 7 8
Matas Buzelis S 34 17 8 3
Ayo Dosunmu 28 16 4 4
Tre Jones S 28 10 2 8
Kevin Huerter 31 9 11 7
Jalen Smith S 15 9 5 1
Dalen Terry 13 5 0 0
Julian Phillips 15 3 1 0
Isaac Okoro S 27 2 2 1
Patrick Williams 15 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kon Knueppel · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Kon Knueppel makes 8-foot two point shot (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kon Knueppel CHA
19%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
13%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
6 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
7 Tre Jones CHI
8%
8 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
9 PJ Hall CHA
7%
10 Jalen Smith CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
36%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Miller CHA 23.8 5.5 4.0
2 Kon Knueppel CHA 22.8 4.3 5.2
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.3 4.2 7.9
4 Miles Bridges CHA 19.4 5.8 5.0
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.9 8.0 3.7
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.5 5.0 2.1
7 Collin Sexton CHA 15.2 2.9 4.2
8 Kevin Huerter CHI 11.8 4.1 2.1
9 Tre Jones CHI 11.6 2.7 5.8
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 10.7 3.0 3.4
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.0 3.0 1.5
12 Sion James CHA 8.3 3.7 2.0
13 Jalen Smith CHI 8.0 6.2 1.6
14 Tidjane Salaun CHA 7.7 4.2 1.3
15 Patrick Williams CHI 6.2 2.3 1.2
16 Josh Green CHA 5.7 1.8 1.1
17 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.2 2.5 0.9
18 Julian Phillips CHI 5.1 2.1 0.8
19 Jevon Carter CHI 5.0 1.2 1.0
20 PJ Hall CHA 4.4 3.6 0.7
21 Tre Mann CHA 4.2 1.7 1.2
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.9 2.5 1.2
23 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.0 1.1 0.5
24 Antonio Reeves CHA 2.7 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.