NBA games

ATL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
117–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL29413611117
TOR35423027134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home TOR
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 36 31 4 3
Jalen Johnson S 37 30 7 9
Dyson Daniels S 34 20 5 12
Vit Krejci 23 13 2 2
Keaton Wallace 19 11 3 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 30 8 7 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 30 4 3 4
Caleb Houstan 2 0 0 0
Asa Newell 8 0 1 0
Mouhamed Gueye 20 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 30 29 4 1
Brandon Ingram S 34 29 9 1
Scottie Barnes S 32 20 7 4
Immanuel Quickley S 33 15 2 7
Sandro Mamukelashvili 32 13 12 8
Jamal Shead 14 10 1 4
Gradey Dick 15 7 6 0
Collin Murray-Boyles S 26 6 3 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 17 5 2 1
Mo Bamba 2 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 26.0 10.5 8.8
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 25.3 6.2 4.6
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.0 11.0 5.8
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.7 3.6 3.6
5 RJ Barrett TOR 19.6 5.1 4.3
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.6 8.9 3.8
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.3 4.3 6.6
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.7 7.6 5.9
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.6 5.6 1.9
10 Jamal Shead TOR 10.3 2.5 5.9
11 Vit Krejci ATL 10.0 2.7 1.4
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.3 3.7 1.4
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.2 2.3 1.3
14 Ochai Agbaji TOR 7.1 3.2 1.4
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 6.9 5.9 1.8
16 Luke Kennard ATL 6.4 2.4 1.9
17 Asa Newell ATL 5.8 2.7 1.0
18 Gradey Dick TOR 5.3 1.8 1.0
19 Caleb Houstan ATL 4.0 1.5 0.6
20 Jamison Battle TOR 3.7 1.7 0.9
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.2 1.0 1.4
22 Alijah Martin TOR 2.8 1.1 0.5
23 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 2.7 2.2 0.5
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.9 0.7 0.5
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.9 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.