NBA games

PHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
130–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI31353331130
NY30282932119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NY
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 37 36 8 4
Joel Embiid S 33 26 10 5
VJ Edgecombe S 41 26 2 4
Paul George S 35 15 8 6
Quentin Grimes 34 10 6 5
Jared McCain 18 6 2 1
Dominick Barlow S 14 5 2 0
Jabari Walker 9 4 3 0
Adem Bona 18 2 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 31 4 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 23 14 2
Miles McBride 31 20 5 2
OG Anunoby S 37 19 6 6
Mikal Bridges S 37 12 5 6
Tyler Kolek 14 6 2 1
Jordan Clarkson 19 3 1 0
Kevin McCullar Jr. 5 3 1 0
Mitchell Robinson S 19 2 5 2
Mohamed Diawara 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
15%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
3 OG Anunoby NY
9%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 Paul George PHI
9%
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
9 Ariel Hukporti NY
8%
10 Jalen Brunson NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
32%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.7 3.8 7.4
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.3 4.2 6.6
3 Joel Embiid PHI 26.2 7.6 3.9
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.2 10.9 2.5
5 Paul George PHI 19.6 5.5 4.0
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 19.5 4.7 3.6
7 OG Anunoby NY 17.5 6.5 2.8
8 Mikal Bridges NY 17.4 4.4 5.0
9 Miles McBride NY 14.7 3.1 2.4
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 11.9 3.8 3.6
11 Jordan Clarkson NY 11.2 2.2 1.6
12 Tyler Kolek NY 9.8 3.7 4.9
13 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.7 4.6 1.5
14 Jared McCain PHI 7.0 3.5 1.8
15 Andre Drummond PHI 6.6 8.1 1.3
16 Adem Bona PHI 5.7 4.5 0.7
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.6 9.2 1.1
18 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 5.2 2.7 1.8
19 Jabari Walker PHI 5.0 3.2 0.7
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.8 2.2 0.9
21 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.8 2.0 0.8
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 4.3 4.4 0.9
23 Eric Gordon PHI 3.7 0.5 0.4
24 Justin Edwards PHI 3.7 1.8 1.0
25 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.6 1.6 0.7
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.7 0.6 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.