NBA games

MIN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
125–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN27293435125
MIA25253629115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MIA
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 33 3 5
Naz Reid 25 29 4 3
Julius Randle S 39 23 10 4
Rudy Gobert S 32 13 12 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 11 8 4
Jaden McDaniels S 34 5 2 3
Mike Conley 15 5 1 3
Bones Hyland 21 4 0 3
Jaylen Clark 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 25 21 1 1
Nikola Jovic 28 14 3 4
Davion Mitchell S 34 14 3 6
Andrew Wiggins S 28 12 2 3
Bam Adebayo S 34 12 9 4
Kel'el Ware S 29 11 8 1
Simone Fontecchio 16 9 3 1
Myron Gardner 5 7 1 2
Dru Smith 14 6 0 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 10 6 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Norman Powell MIA
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
5 Julius Randle MIN
9%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
31%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.8 6.0 3.8
2 Norman Powell MIA 23.4 4.7 4.0
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.7 6.8 6.1
4 Tyler Herro MIA 20.9 4.4 2.6
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 20.1 4.4 4.5
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.6 4.9 3.0
7 Naz Reid MIN 16.2 6.6 2.8
8 Bam Adebayo MIA 15.8 11.0 2.7
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.8 10.4 1.2
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.7 5.3 5.2
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.3 4.4 3.3
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.3 11.4 1.8
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.7 2.7 6.2
14 Bones Hyland MIN 8.5 2.3 3.0
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.3 3.3 3.4
16 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.3 2.3 2.4
17 Dru Smith MIA 7.1 2.8 2.2
18 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.2 2.8 1.4
19 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.4 1.8 1.0
20 Mike Conley MIN 4.6 1.9 2.0
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.7 1.7 0.7
22 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.5 1.7 1.7
23 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.8 1.1 0.7
24 Leonard Miller MIN 2.7 1.4 0.7
25 Joe Ingles MIN 2.2 0.7 1.4
26 Myron Gardner MIA 2.1 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.