NBA games

MEM @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
121–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31293625121
LAL39273032128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 25 1 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 23 20 5 2
Ja Morant S 31 16 3 11
Santi Aldama 30 15 7 3
Jock Landale 20 14 5 0
GG Jackson 15 12 1 2
Jaylen Wells S 28 6 1 2
Cam Spencer 17 5 2 5
Cedric Coward S 24 5 7 5
Christian Koloko S 22 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 34 6 8
LeBron James S 36 31 9 6
Jake LaRavia S 37 21 9 2
Marcus Smart S 34 13 8 7
Jaxson Hayes 23 12 2 0
Nick Smith Jr. 16 8 0 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 20 5 2 1
Deandre Ayton S 25 4 6 0
Dalton Knecht 11 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marcus Smart · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
11%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 Cedric Coward MEM
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
6 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
9%
9 Christian Koloko MEM
8%
10 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
40%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.3 7.8 8.8
2 LeBron James LAL 24.7 5.8 6.7
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.3 7.2 3.2
4 Ja Morant MEM 20.6 3.7 8.4
5 Santi Aldama MEM 18.9 6.9 3.2
6 Cedric Coward MEM 17.9 7.5 4.0
7 Cam Spencer MEM 16.8 3.6 7.2
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 14.3 4.1 2.7
9 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.5 8.9 1.3
10 Jock Landale MEM 10.5 6.4 1.8
11 Marcus Smart LAL 10.2 3.1 2.6
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 9.4 2.2 3.8
13 Jake LaRavia LAL 8.6 4.3 2.0
14 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 7.5 1.6 1.0
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.6 2.9 4.7
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.4 4.0 0.8
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.6 4.0 1.2
18 GG Jackson MEM 5.1 2.9 0.9
19 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.2 1.5 0.6
20 John Konchar MEM 3.3 2.3 1.1
21 Christian Koloko MEM 3.2 3.7 0.8
22 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.6 1.7 0.8
23 Bronny James LAL 2.4 0.8 1.0
24 Drew Timme LAL 2.1 1.5 0.7
25 Chris Manon LAL 1.6 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.