NBA games

OKC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
131–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC34303136131
GS2322212894

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home GS
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 30 1 7
Chet Holmgren S 26 15 15 4
Branden Carlson 22 15 11 2
Aaron Wiggins 27 15 3 2
Jalen Williams S 21 12 6 2
Luguentz Dort S 26 11 3 0
Ajay Mitchell 25 11 2 6
Chris Youngblood 8 9 1 1
Isaiah Joe 20 5 2 4
Alex Caruso 11 4 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody S 27 13 2 0
Will Richard S 27 13 5 1
Al Horford 16 13 6 0
Brandin Podziemski S 26 12 4 4
Buddy Hield 24 11 2 1
Quinten Post S 23 11 3 2
Gui Santos S 26 9 8 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 24 7 9 3
Pat Spencer 31 3 3 11
Gary Payton II 16 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
18%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
17%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
16%
4 Quinten Post GS
14%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
13%
6 Moses Moody GS
10%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
10%
8 Brandin Podziemski GS
0%
9 Branden Carlson OKC
0%
10 Alex Caruso OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
26%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.8 5.2 7.5
2 Jalen Williams OKC 19.5 5.6 5.6
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.3 7.9 1.7
4 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.7 4.1 4.0
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC 12.5 3.9 3.4
6 Moses Moody GS 9.2 4.0 1.7
7 Pat Spencer GS 8.7 2.6 3.2
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.5 3.2 1.4
9 Quinten Post GS 8.4 4.1 1.6
10 Cason Wallace OKC 8.1 3.1 1.9
11 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.1 4.5 1.7
12 Will Richard GS 7.0 2.8 1.5
13 Alex Caruso OKC 6.9 4.2 1.5
14 Buddy Hield GS 6.8 3.0 1.2
15 Al Horford GS 6.7 4.3 1.6
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.7 2.3 1.3
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.7 2.3 1.4
18 Branden Carlson OKC 6.5 2.9 0.9
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.9 2.7 1.8
20 Gui Santos GS 5.3 2.9 1.3
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.2 4.7 1.0
22 Gary Payton II GS 4.8 2.6 1.6
23 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.0 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.