NBA games

SAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
102–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC29272719102
PHX32303532129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home PHX
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 33 23 9 2
Russell Westbrook S 26 17 9 6
Keon Ellis 35 14 3 0
DeMar DeRozan S 30 13 2 3
Dennis Schroder 24 12 2 2
Drew Eubanks 10 8 2 0
Maxime Raynaud S 25 6 5 2
Nique Clifford 19 3 2 1
Doug McDermott 16 3 1 1
Precious Achiuwa S 19 3 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 28 33 2 5
Dillon Brooks S 25 18 2 1
Mark Williams S 22 15 9 0
Oso Ighodaro 20 15 6 1
Collin Gillespie S 26 15 2 5
Jamaree Bouyea 23 12 6 1
Royce O'Neale S 30 7 5 2
Jordan Goodwin 23 7 2 6
Khaman Maluach 5 4 2 0
Ryan Dunn 18 3 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 13-foot step back jumpshot (Royce O'Neale assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Maxime Raynaud SAC
13%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Russell Westbrook SAC
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
5 Mark Williams PHX
11%
6 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Collin Gillespie PHX
9%
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC
7%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
25%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.7 4.5 5.8
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.9 4.7 4.8
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 20.4 3.5 2.1
4 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.3 5.6 6.2
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 17.0 4.8 6.1
6 Maxime Raynaud SAC 15.7 9.7 1.6
7 Dennis Schroder SAC 14.1 3.4 5.7
8 Keegan Murray SAC 13.2 5.4 1.7
9 Mark Williams PHX 11.7 7.3 1.6
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.9 3.9 2.9
11 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.2 5.2 2.2
12 Nique Clifford SAC 9.1 3.7 1.6
13 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 7.9 2.7 1.9
14 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.2 6.3 2.2
15 Malik Monk SAC 7.0 2.2 1.9
16 Precious Achiuwa SAC 7.0 4.8 1.4
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.6 5.1 1.8
18 Keon Ellis SAC 6.5 2.3 1.2
19 Devin Carter SAC 4.0 1.8 1.2
20 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.8 1.6 0.6
21 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.7 2.8 0.6
22 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.7 3.1 0.9
23 Doug McDermott SAC 3.7 1.3 0.6
24 Dario Saric SAC 3.1 1.1 0.4
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.5 1.7 0.6
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.4 1.9 0.6
27 Nick Richards PHX 2.0 3.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.